Hci Group Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 113.1
| HCI Stock | USD 116.01 3.01 2.66% |
HCI |
HCI Target Price Odds to finish over 113.1
The tendency of HCI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 113.10 in 90 days |
| 116.01 | 90 days | 113.10 | about 25.71 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of HCI to stay above $ 113.10 in 90 days from now is about 25.71 (This HCI Group probability density function shows the probability of HCI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of HCI Group price to stay between $ 113.10 and its current price of $116.01 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.39 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.19 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, HCI will likely underperform. Additionally HCI Group has an alpha of 0.1969, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). HCI Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for HCI
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HCI Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HCI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
HCI Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. HCI is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the HCI's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold HCI Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of HCI within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.85 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
HCI Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of HCI for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for HCI Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| HCI Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| HCI Group has 209.9 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.64, which is OK given its current industry classification. HCI Group has a current ratio of 0.82, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for HCI to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| HCI Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 82.0% of HCI shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: HCI Group Inc Shares Gap Down to 107.08 on Nov 20 |
HCI Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of HCI Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential HCI's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HCI's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 770.5 M |
HCI Technical Analysis
HCI's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. HCI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of HCI Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing HCI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
HCI Predictive Forecast Models
HCI's time-series forecasting models is one of many HCI's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary HCI's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about HCI Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about HCI for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for HCI Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| HCI Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| HCI Group has 209.9 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.64, which is OK given its current industry classification. HCI Group has a current ratio of 0.82, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for HCI to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| HCI Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 82.0% of HCI shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: HCI Group Inc Shares Gap Down to 107.08 on Nov 20 |
Check out HCI Backtesting, HCI Valuation, HCI Correlation, HCI Hype Analysis, HCI Volatility, HCI History as well as HCI Performance. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HCI. If investors know HCI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about HCI listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 16.123 | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share 12.05 | Revenue Per Share 78.183 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.48 |
The market value of HCI Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of HCI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of HCI's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is HCI's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because HCI's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect HCI's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HCI's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HCI is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HCI's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.