HCI Stock Forward View
| HCI Stock | USD 157.96 3.62 2.24% |
HCI Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of HCI's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 13th of February 2026 the relative strength indicator of HCI's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using HCI hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of HCI Group from the perspective of HCI response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of HCI Group on the next trading day is expected to be 167.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 233.12. HCI after-hype prediction price | USD 160.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HCI to cross-verify your projections. HCI Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine HCI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for HCI using various technical indicators. When you analyze HCI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HCI Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of HCI Group on the next trading day is expected to be 167.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.82, mean absolute percentage error of 19.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 233.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HCI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HCI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HCI Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest HCI | HCI Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
HCI Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting HCI's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HCI's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 165.68 and 169.53, respectively. We have considered HCI's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HCI stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HCI stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.1028 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.8216 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.022 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 233.1166 |
Predictive Modules for HCI
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HCI Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HCI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
HCI After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of HCI at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in HCI or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of HCI, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
HCI Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting HCI's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on HCI's historical news coverage. HCI's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 158.71 and 162.55, respectively. We have considered HCI's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
HCI is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of HCI Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
HCI Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as HCI is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading HCI backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with HCI, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
157.96 | 160.63 | 0.59 |
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HCI Hype Timeline
On the 13th of February 2026 HCI Group is traded for 157.96. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. HCI is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 160.63. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.59%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.13%. The volatility of related hype on HCI is about 6433.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 157.96. About 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of HCI was currently reported as 43.12. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.7. HCI Group recorded earning per share (EPS) of 15.77. The entity last dividend was issued on the 20th of February 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HCI to cross-verify your projections.HCI Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to HCI's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict HCI's future price movements. Getting to know how HCI's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how HCI may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KMPR | Kemper | 0.11 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.31 | (2.70) | 17.07 | |
| PLMR | Palomar Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.09 | (0) | 3.35 | (3.35) | 8.53 | |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking | 0.11 | 9 per month | 1.36 | 0.04 | 2.91 | (2.01) | 8.79 | |
| AHL | Aspen Insurance Holdings | 0.01 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.38) | 0.22 | (0.14) | 0.76 | |
| BANC | Banc of California | (0.90) | 11 per month | 1.39 | 0.09 | 4.35 | (2.45) | 8.37 | |
| BOH | Bank of Hawaii | 0.86 | 8 per month | 1.14 | 0.13 | 2.56 | (1.90) | 8.71 | |
| STC | Stewart Information Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.92 | (2.30) | 8.73 | |
| WD | Walker Dunlop | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.64 | (0.02) | 2.72 | (2.68) | 9.87 | |
| OAK-PA | Oaktree Capital Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.89 | (0.02) | 1.20 | (1.11) | 4.83 | |
| SLDE | Slide Insurance Holdings | 0.11 | 8 per month | 1.97 | (0.01) | 4.24 | (3.18) | 14.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for HCI
For every potential investor in HCI, whether a beginner or expert, HCI's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HCI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HCI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HCI's price trends.HCI Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HCI stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HCI could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HCI by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HCI Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HCI stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HCI shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HCI stock market strength indicators, traders can identify HCI Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1569.73 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.51) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 158.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 158.52 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.64) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (3.62) |
HCI Risk Indicators
The analysis of HCI's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HCI's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hci stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Variance | 3.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for HCI
The number of cover stories for HCI depends on current market conditions and HCI's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that HCI is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about HCI's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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HCI Short Properties
HCI's future price predictability will typically decrease when HCI's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of HCI Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential HCI's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HCI's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HCI to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Is there potential for Property & Casualty Insurance market expansion? Will HCI introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HCI. Market participants price HCI higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about HCI listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Understanding HCI Group requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects HCI's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what HCI's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push HCI's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HCI's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HCI is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, HCI's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.