Lumentum Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 56.78
| LITE Stock | USD 89.11 3.50 4.09% |
Lumentum |
Lumentum Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 56.78
The tendency of Lumentum Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 56.78 or more in 90 days |
| 89.11 | 90 days | 56.78 | about 18.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lumentum Holdings to drop to $ 56.78 or more in 90 days from now is about 18.25 (This Lumentum Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Lumentum Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lumentum Holdings price to stay between $ 56.78 and its current price of $89.11 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.99 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.91 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Lumentum Holdings will likely underperform. Additionally Lumentum Holdings has an alpha of 0.3928, implying that it can generate a 0.39 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Lumentum Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Lumentum Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lumentum Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lumentum Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lumentum Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lumentum Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lumentum Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lumentum Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lumentum Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.91 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.60 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
Lumentum Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Lumentum Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Lumentum Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Lumentum Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.36 B. Net Loss for the year was (546.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 851.6 M. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Lumentum Holdings Inc Shares Up 7.46 percent on Nov 21 |
Lumentum Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lumentum Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lumentum Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lumentum Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 887 M |
Lumentum Holdings Technical Analysis
Lumentum Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lumentum Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lumentum Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lumentum Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lumentum Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Lumentum Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Lumentum Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lumentum Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Lumentum Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Lumentum Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Lumentum Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Lumentum Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.36 B. Net Loss for the year was (546.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 851.6 M. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Lumentum Holdings Inc Shares Up 7.46 percent on Nov 21 |
Check out Lumentum Holdings Backtesting, Lumentum Holdings Valuation, Lumentum Holdings Correlation, Lumentum Holdings Hype Analysis, Lumentum Holdings Volatility, Lumentum Holdings History as well as Lumentum Holdings Performance. For information on how to trade Lumentum Stock refer to our How to Trade Lumentum Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Communications Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lumentum Holdings. If investors know Lumentum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lumentum Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.711 | Earnings Share (8.31) | Revenue Per Share 20.362 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.061 | Return On Assets (0.05) |
The market value of Lumentum Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lumentum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lumentum Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lumentum Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lumentum Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lumentum Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lumentum Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lumentum Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lumentum Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.