Livewire Group Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 10.17
| LVWR Stock | USD 5.77 0.05 0.86% |
LiveWire |
LiveWire Target Price Odds to finish below 10.17
The tendency of LiveWire Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 10.17 after 90 days |
| 5.77 | 90 days | 10.17 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of LiveWire to stay under $ 10.17 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This LiveWire Group probability density function shows the probability of LiveWire Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of LiveWire Group price to stay between its current price of $ 5.77 and $ 10.17 at the end of the 90-day period is about 86.67 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.95 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, LiveWire will likely underperform. Additionally LiveWire Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. LiveWire Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for LiveWire
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LiveWire Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LiveWire's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LiveWire Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. LiveWire is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the LiveWire's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LiveWire Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of LiveWire within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.4 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.95 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
LiveWire Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of LiveWire for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for LiveWire Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| LiveWire Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 38.02 M. Net Loss for the year was (109.55 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.9 M. | |
| LiveWire Group currently holds about 5.37 M in cash with (83.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.03. | |
| LiveWire Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 95.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: LiveWire Group Inc CEO Karim Donnez Sells 11,997 Shares |
LiveWire Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of LiveWire Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential LiveWire's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LiveWire's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 202.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 167.9 M |
LiveWire Technical Analysis
LiveWire's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. LiveWire Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LiveWire Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing LiveWire Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
LiveWire Predictive Forecast Models
LiveWire's time-series forecasting models is one of many LiveWire's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary LiveWire's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about LiveWire Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about LiveWire for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for LiveWire Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| LiveWire Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 38.02 M. Net Loss for the year was (109.55 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.9 M. | |
| LiveWire Group currently holds about 5.37 M in cash with (83.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.03. | |
| LiveWire Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 95.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: LiveWire Group Inc CEO Karim Donnez Sells 11,997 Shares |
Additional Tools for LiveWire Stock Analysis
When running LiveWire's price analysis, check to measure LiveWire's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LiveWire is operating at the current time. Most of LiveWire's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LiveWire's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LiveWire's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LiveWire to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.