Livewire Group Stock Price Patterns
| LVWR Stock | USD 2.34 0.11 4.93% |
Momentum 25
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 7.25 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.283 |
Using LiveWire hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of LiveWire Group from the perspective of LiveWire response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards LiveWire using LiveWire's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards LiveWire using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of LiveWire's stock price.
LiveWire Implied Volatility | 2.61 |
LiveWire's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of LiveWire Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if LiveWire's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that LiveWire stock will not fluctuate a lot when LiveWire's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in LiveWire to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying LiveWire because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
LiveWire after-hype prediction price | USD 3.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current LiveWire contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that LiveWire Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.16% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With LiveWire trading at USD 2.34, that is roughly USD 0.003817 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating LiveWire's daily price movement you should consider acquiring LiveWire Group options at the current volatility level of 2.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out LiveWire Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LiveWire's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LiveWire After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of LiveWire at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in LiveWire or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of LiveWire, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
LiveWire Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting LiveWire's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on LiveWire's historical news coverage. LiveWire's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.17 and 8.94, respectively. We have considered LiveWire's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
LiveWire is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of LiveWire Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
LiveWire Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as LiveWire is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading LiveWire backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with LiveWire, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.13 | 5.57 | 2.43 | 1.98 | 17 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 17 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.34 | 3.35 | 43.21 |
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LiveWire Hype Timeline
LiveWire Group is now traded for 2.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.43, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.98. LiveWire is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.351 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 43.21%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -1.13%. The volatility of related hype on LiveWire is about 317.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.32. LiveWire Group currently holds 799 K in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.08, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. LiveWire Group has a current ratio of 1.17, suggesting that it may not be capable to disburse its financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about LiveWire's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 17 days. Check out LiveWire Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.LiveWire Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to LiveWire's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict LiveWire's future price movements. Getting to know how LiveWire's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how LiveWire may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SES | SES AI Corp | 0.05 | 11 per month | 5.00 | 0.01 | 10.80 | (7.27) | 28.94 | |
| AEVA | Aeva Technologies Common | 2.72 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 16.00 | (10.24) | 48.05 | |
| FOXF | Fox Factory Holding | (0.66) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.90 | (5.07) | 28.69 | |
| GIII | G III Apparel Group | (0.36) | 12 per month | 1.69 | (0) | 3.85 | (2.62) | 9.35 | |
| CNNE | Cannae Holdings | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.69 | (3.23) | 10.76 | |
| LOT | Lotus Technology | 0.09 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.63 | (7.19) | 29.19 | |
| BH | Biglari Holdings | 10.70 | 11 per month | 3.80 | (0.01) | 5.21 | (4.09) | 21.12 | |
| LGIH | LGI Homes | 4.29 | 9 per month | 2.54 | 0.04 | 9.13 | (5.06) | 17.70 | |
| THRM | Gentherm | (1.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.44 | (3.01) | 10.71 |
LiveWire Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine LiveWire price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for LiveWire using various technical indicators. When you analyze LiveWire charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About LiveWire Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of LiveWire stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as LiveWire Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of LiveWire based on analysis of LiveWire hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to LiveWire's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to LiveWire's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 73.89 | 58.56 | 67.34 | 72.67 | PTB Ratio | 11.13 | 8.49 | 9.76 | 9.28 |
Pair Trading with LiveWire
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if LiveWire position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in LiveWire will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with LiveWire Stock
Moving against LiveWire Stock
| 0.87 | KGC | Kinross Gold | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | FTAI | FTAI Aviation | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | GOLD | Gold Inc Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.79 | IFSPF | Interfor | PairCorr |
| 0.79 | NOSUF | Nerds on Site | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | AXIA | AXIA Energia Symbol Change | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to LiveWire could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace LiveWire when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back LiveWire - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling LiveWire Group to buy it.
The correlation of LiveWire is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as LiveWire moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if LiveWire Group moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for LiveWire can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for LiveWire Stock Analysis
When running LiveWire's price analysis, check to measure LiveWire's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LiveWire is operating at the current time. Most of LiveWire's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LiveWire's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LiveWire's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LiveWire to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.