Callaway Golf Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.50
| MODG Stock | USD 8.60 0.45 5.52% |
Callaway |
Callaway Golf Target Price Odds to finish below 4.50
The tendency of Callaway Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.50 or more in 90 days |
| 8.60 | 90 days | 4.50 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Callaway Golf to drop to $ 4.50 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Callaway Golf probability density function shows the probability of Callaway Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Callaway Golf price to stay between $ 4.50 and its current price of $8.6 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.57 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Callaway Golf has a beta of 0.92. This indicates Callaway Golf market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Callaway Golf is expected to follow. Additionally Callaway Golf has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Callaway Golf Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Callaway Golf
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Callaway Golf. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Callaway Golf's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Callaway Golf Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Callaway Golf is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Callaway Golf's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Callaway Golf, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Callaway Golf within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.52 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.92 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.76 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Callaway Golf Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Callaway Golf for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Callaway Golf can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Callaway Golf generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Callaway Golf has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Callaway Golf has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Topgolf Breaks Ground on Second Venue in Minnesota |
Callaway Golf Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Callaway Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Callaway Golf's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Callaway Golf's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 201.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 394.3 M |
Callaway Golf Technical Analysis
Callaway Golf's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Callaway Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Callaway Golf. In general, you should focus on analyzing Callaway Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Callaway Golf Predictive Forecast Models
Callaway Golf's time-series forecasting models is one of many Callaway Golf's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Callaway Golf's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Callaway Golf
Checking the ongoing alerts about Callaway Golf for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Callaway Golf help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Callaway Golf generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Callaway Golf has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Callaway Golf has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Topgolf Breaks Ground on Second Venue in Minnesota |
Check out Callaway Golf Backtesting, Callaway Golf Valuation, Callaway Golf Correlation, Callaway Golf Hype Analysis, Callaway Golf Volatility, Callaway Golf History as well as Callaway Golf Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Callaway Stock please use our How to Invest in Callaway Golf guide.You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Leisure Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Callaway Golf. If investors know Callaway will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Callaway Golf listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | Earnings Share (0.07) | Revenue Per Share 22.907 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Assets 0.013 |
The market value of Callaway Golf is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Callaway that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Callaway Golf's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Callaway Golf's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Callaway Golf's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Callaway Golf's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Callaway Golf's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Callaway Golf is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Callaway Golf's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.