Navient Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 22.13
| NAVI Stock | USD 15.37 0.44 2.95% |
Navient |
Navient Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 22.13
The tendency of Navient Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 22.13 or more in 90 days |
| 15.37 | 90 days | 22.13 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Navient Corp to move over $ 22.13 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Navient Corp probability density function shows the probability of Navient Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Navient Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 15.37 and $ 22.13 at the end of the 90-day period is about 53.9 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.89 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Navient Corp will likely underperform. Additionally Navient Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Navient Corp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Navient Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Navient Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Navient Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Navient Corp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Navient Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Navient Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Navient Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Navient Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.89 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Navient Corp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Navient Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Navient Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Navient Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Navient Corp has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Acquisition by Cabral Anna Escobedo of 8647 shares of Navient Corp subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Navient Corp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Navient Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Navient Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Navient Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 123 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.8 B |
Navient Corp Technical Analysis
Navient Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Navient Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Navient Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Navient Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Navient Corp Predictive Forecast Models
Navient Corp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Navient Corp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Navient Corp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Navient Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Navient Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Navient Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Navient Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Navient Corp has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Acquisition by Cabral Anna Escobedo of 8647 shares of Navient Corp subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Navient Corp Backtesting, Navient Corp Valuation, Navient Corp Correlation, Navient Corp Hype Analysis, Navient Corp Volatility, Navient Corp History as well as Navient Corp Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Navient Stock please use our How to Invest in Navient Corp guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Consumer Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Navient Corp. If investors know Navient will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Navient Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.39) | Dividend Share 0.64 | Earnings Share 0.76 | Revenue Per Share 9.229 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.011 |
The market value of Navient Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Navient that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Navient Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Navient Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Navient Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Navient Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Navient Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Navient Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Navient Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.