Freightcar America Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.75
| RAIL Stock | USD 9.45 0.20 2.07% |
Freightcar |
Freightcar America Target Price Odds to finish below 9.75
The tendency of Freightcar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 9.75 after 90 days |
| 9.45 | 90 days | 9.75 | about 31.29 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Freightcar America to stay under $ 9.75 after 90 days from now is about 31.29 (This Freightcar America probability density function shows the probability of Freightcar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Freightcar America price to stay between its current price of $ 9.45 and $ 9.75 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.34 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.2 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Freightcar America will likely underperform. Additionally Freightcar America has an alpha of 0.923, implying that it can generate a 0.92 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Freightcar America Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Freightcar America
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Freightcar America. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Freightcar America Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Freightcar America is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Freightcar America's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Freightcar America, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Freightcar America within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.92 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.20 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.37 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Freightcar America Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Freightcar America for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Freightcar America can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Freightcar America is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Freightcar America appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 358.09 M. Net Loss for the year was (23.59 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 25.82 M. | |
| About 27.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: FreightCar America Inc Shares Up 10.87 percent on Nov 19 |
Freightcar America Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Freightcar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Freightcar America's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Freightcar America's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 28.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 39.6 M |
Freightcar America Technical Analysis
Freightcar America's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Freightcar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Freightcar America. In general, you should focus on analyzing Freightcar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Freightcar America Predictive Forecast Models
Freightcar America's time-series forecasting models is one of many Freightcar America's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Freightcar America's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Freightcar America
Checking the ongoing alerts about Freightcar America for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Freightcar America help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Freightcar America is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Freightcar America appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 358.09 M. Net Loss for the year was (23.59 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 25.82 M. | |
| About 27.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: FreightCar America Inc Shares Up 10.87 percent on Nov 19 |
Check out Freightcar America Backtesting, Freightcar America Valuation, Freightcar America Correlation, Freightcar America Hype Analysis, Freightcar America Volatility, Freightcar America History as well as Freightcar America Performance. For more information on how to buy Freightcar Stock please use our How to buy in Freightcar Stock guide.You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Freightcar America. If investors know Freightcar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Freightcar America listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (4.31) | Revenue Per Share 16.728 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.664 | Return On Assets 0.0577 | Return On Equity (0.09) |
The market value of Freightcar America is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Freightcar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Freightcar America's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Freightcar America's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Freightcar America's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Freightcar America's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Freightcar America's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Freightcar America is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Freightcar America's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.