Freightcar America Stock Forward View
| RAIL Stock | USD 12.03 0.00 0.00% |
Freightcar Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Freightcar America's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Freightcar America's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Freightcar America fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Freightcar America's stock price is about 60 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Freightcar, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.079 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.255 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.55 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.77 | Wall Street Target Price 15.3333 |
Using Freightcar America hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Freightcar America from the perspective of Freightcar America response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Freightcar America using Freightcar America's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Freightcar using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Freightcar America's stock price.
Freightcar America Short Interest
An investor who is long Freightcar America may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Freightcar America and may potentially protect profits, hedge Freightcar America with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 9.0355 | Short Percent 0.0287 | Short Ratio 1.74 | Shares Short Prior Month 387.7 K | 50 Day MA 10.015 |
Freightcar Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Freightcar America on the next trading day is expected to be 12.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.70.Freightcar America Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Freightcar America's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Freightcar. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Freightcar can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Freightcar America. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Freightcar America's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Freightcar America.
Freightcar America Implied Volatility | 1.2 |
Freightcar America's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Freightcar America stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Freightcar America's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Freightcar America stock will not fluctuate a lot when Freightcar America's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Freightcar America on the next trading day is expected to be 12.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.70. Freightcar America after-hype prediction price | USD 11.96 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Freightcar contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Freightcar America will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.075% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Freightcar America trading at USD 12.03, that is roughly USD 0.009023 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Freightcar America's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Freightcar America options at the current volatility level of 1.2%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Freightcar Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Freightcar America's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Freightcar America's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Freightcar America stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Freightcar America's open interest, investors have to compare it to Freightcar America's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Freightcar America is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Freightcar. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Freightcar America Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Freightcar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Freightcar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Freightcar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Freightcar America Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Freightcar America's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2003-12-31 | Previous Quarter 61.4 M | Current Value 62.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 49.6 M |
Freightcar America Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Freightcar America on the next trading day is expected to be 12.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Freightcar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Freightcar America's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Freightcar America Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Freightcar America | Freightcar America Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Freightcar America Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Freightcar America's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Freightcar America's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.40 and 16.56, respectively. We have considered Freightcar America's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Freightcar America stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Freightcar America stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.3642 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3066 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0317 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.7018 |
Predictive Modules for Freightcar America
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Freightcar America. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Freightcar America After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Freightcar America at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Freightcar America or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Freightcar America, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Freightcar America Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Freightcar America's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Freightcar America's historical news coverage. Freightcar America's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.87 and 16.05, respectively. We have considered Freightcar America's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Freightcar America is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Freightcar America is based on 3 months time horizon.
Freightcar America Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Freightcar America is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Freightcar America backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Freightcar America, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.68 | 4.08 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.03 | 11.96 | 0.58 |
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Freightcar America Hype Timeline
Freightcar America is at this time traded for 12.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Freightcar is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.96. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.58%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.68%. The volatility of related hype on Freightcar America is about 3777.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.96. About 26.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 645.0. Freightcar America last dividend was issued on the 15th of August 2017. The entity had 1:200 split on the April 17, 2009. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Freightcar America to cross-verify your projections.Freightcar America Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Freightcar America's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Freightcar America's future price movements. Getting to know how Freightcar America's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Freightcar America may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ROMA | Roma Green Finance | (0.09) | 10 per month | 9.34 | 0.04 | 29.11 | (11.56) | 80.56 | |
| SCAG | Scage Future American | 0.13 | 25 per month | 6.39 | 0.01 | 13.47 | (10.96) | 36.10 | |
| BLNK | Blink Charging Co | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 10.45 | (8.33) | 29.81 | |
| RGP | Resources Connection | 0.13 | 15 per month | 3.50 | 0.03 | 4.80 | (4.06) | 21.08 | |
| CRGO | Freightos Limited Ordinary | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 7.47 | (7.69) | 34.36 | |
| ISSC | Innovative Solutions and | (0.50) | 12 per month | 3.00 | 0.17 | 9.75 | (5.27) | 38.98 | |
| ZJK | ZJK Industrial Co | 0.06 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.36 | (10.58) | 58.59 | |
| RCMT | RCM Technologies | (0.43) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.73 | (2.89) | 12.29 | |
| SKYX | SKYX Platforms Corp | (0.06) | 10 per month | 3.99 | 0.14 | 11.71 | (6.67) | 32.00 | |
| SHIP | Seanergy Maritime Holdings | (0.32) | 10 per month | 1.31 | 0.20 | 4.47 | (2.71) | 8.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for Freightcar America
For every potential investor in Freightcar, whether a beginner or expert, Freightcar America's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Freightcar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Freightcar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Freightcar America's price trends.Freightcar America Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Freightcar America stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Freightcar America could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Freightcar America by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Freightcar America Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Freightcar America stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Freightcar America shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Freightcar America stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Freightcar America entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0682 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.62 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.76 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.82 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.41 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 60.85 |
Freightcar America Risk Indicators
The analysis of Freightcar America's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Freightcar America's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting freightcar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.86 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.17 | |||
| Variance | 17.38 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Freightcar America
The number of cover stories for Freightcar America depends on current market conditions and Freightcar America's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Freightcar America is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Freightcar America's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Freightcar America Short Properties
Freightcar America's future price predictability will typically decrease when Freightcar America's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Freightcar America often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Freightcar America's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Freightcar America's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 44.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Freightcar America to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Freightcar Stock please use our How to buy in Freightcar Stock guide.You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Freightcar America. Anticipated expansion of Freightcar directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Freightcar America assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.079 | Earnings Share 2.52 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.417 | Return On Assets |
Freightcar America's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Freightcar's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Freightcar America's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Freightcar America's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Freightcar America's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Freightcar America should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Freightcar America's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.