Freightcar America Stock Forward View
| RAIL Stock | USD 13.59 0.12 0.89% |
Freightcar Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Freightcar America's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Freightcar America hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Freightcar America from the perspective of Freightcar America response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Freightcar America on the next trading day is expected to be 14.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.00. Freightcar America after-hype prediction price | USD 13.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Freightcar America Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Freightcar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Freightcar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Freightcar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Freightcar America Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Freightcar America on the next trading day is expected to be 14.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Freightcar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Freightcar America's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Freightcar America Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Freightcar America | Freightcar America Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Freightcar America Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Freightcar America's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Freightcar America's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.04 and 18.00, respectively. We have considered Freightcar America's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Freightcar America stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Freightcar America stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2888 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2787 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0273 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.9994 |
Predictive Modules for Freightcar America
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Freightcar America. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Freightcar America After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Freightcar America at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Freightcar America or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Freightcar America, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Freightcar America Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Freightcar America's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Freightcar America's historical news coverage. Freightcar America's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.35 and 17.31, respectively. We have considered Freightcar America's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Freightcar America is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Freightcar America is based on 3 months time horizon.
Freightcar America Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Freightcar America is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Freightcar America backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Freightcar America, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.85 | 3.98 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.59 | 13.33 | 1.91 |
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Freightcar America Hype Timeline
Freightcar America is at this time traded for 13.59. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.06. Freightcar is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 13.33. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.91%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.85%. The volatility of related hype on Freightcar America is about 6123.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.53. About 26.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 645.0. Freightcar America last dividend was issued on the 15th of August 2017. The entity had 1:200 split on the April 17, 2009. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Freightcar America to cross-verify your projections.Freightcar America Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Freightcar America's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Freightcar America's future price movements. Getting to know how Freightcar America's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Freightcar America may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ROMA | Roma Green Finance | 0.01 | 10 per month | 9.92 | 0.02 | 29.11 | (12.73) | 105.24 | |
| SCAG | Scage Future American | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.15 | (0.0002) | 13.47 | (11.15) | 36.10 | |
| BLNK | Blink Charging Co | 0.14 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 9.38 | (8.33) | 30.46 | |
| RGP | Resources Connection | (0.1) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.68 | (4.12) | 20.76 | |
| CRGO | Freightos Limited Ordinary | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 7.47 | (7.69) | 34.36 | |
| ISSC | Innovative Solutions and | (0.50) | 11 per month | 3.04 | 0.21 | 9.75 | (5.27) | 39.02 | |
| ZJK | ZJK Industrial Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.40 | 0.02 | 10.36 | (10.58) | 58.59 | |
| RCMT | RCM Technologies | (0.31) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.73 | (3.53) | 14.26 | |
| SKYX | SKYX Platforms Corp | 0.02 | 11 per month | 4.03 | 0.1 | 11.11 | (6.80) | 33.38 | |
| SHIP | Seanergy Maritime Holdings | 0.07 | 9 per month | 1.45 | 0.19 | 4.52 | (2.74) | 9.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for Freightcar America
For every potential investor in Freightcar, whether a beginner or expert, Freightcar America's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Freightcar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Freightcar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Freightcar America's price trends.Freightcar America Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Freightcar America stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Freightcar America could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Freightcar America by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Freightcar America Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Freightcar America stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Freightcar America shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Freightcar America stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Freightcar America entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5521.49 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2222 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.58 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.58 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.12 |
Freightcar America Risk Indicators
The analysis of Freightcar America's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Freightcar America's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting freightcar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.98 | |||
| Variance | 15.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.78 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Freightcar America
The number of cover stories for Freightcar America depends on current market conditions and Freightcar America's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Freightcar America is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Freightcar America's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Freightcar America Short Properties
Freightcar America's future price predictability will typically decrease when Freightcar America's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Freightcar America often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Freightcar America's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Freightcar America's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 44.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Freightcar America to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Freightcar Stock please use our How to buy in Freightcar Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Freightcar America. Anticipated expansion of Freightcar directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Freightcar America assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Freightcar America's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Freightcar's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Freightcar America's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Freightcar America's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Freightcar America's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Freightcar America should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Freightcar America's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.