Origin Agritech Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.31
| SEED Stock | USD 2.57 0.12 4.46% |
Origin |
Origin Agritech Target Price Odds to finish over 16.31
The tendency of Origin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 16.31 or more in 90 days |
| 2.57 | 90 days | 16.31 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Origin Agritech to move over $ 16.31 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Origin Agritech probability density function shows the probability of Origin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Origin Agritech price to stay between its current price of $ 2.57 and $ 16.31 at the end of the 90-day period is about 75.17 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Origin Agritech has a beta of 0.97. This usually implies Origin Agritech market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Origin Agritech is expected to follow. Additionally Origin Agritech has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Origin Agritech Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Origin Agritech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Agritech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Origin Agritech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Origin Agritech Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Origin Agritech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Origin Agritech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Origin Agritech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Origin Agritech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.97 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Origin Agritech Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Origin Agritech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Origin Agritech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Origin Agritech had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Origin Agritech has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Origin Agritech currently holds 241 K in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 180.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Origin Agritech has a current ratio of 0.13, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Origin Agritech's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Origin Agritech currently holds about 6.51 M in cash with (5.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.13. | |
| Origin Agritech has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 13.0% of Origin Agritech outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Origin Agritech Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Origin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Origin Agritech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Origin Agritech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23.7 M |
Origin Agritech Technical Analysis
Origin Agritech's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Origin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Origin Agritech. In general, you should focus on analyzing Origin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Origin Agritech Predictive Forecast Models
Origin Agritech's time-series forecasting models is one of many Origin Agritech's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Origin Agritech's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Origin Agritech
Checking the ongoing alerts about Origin Agritech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Origin Agritech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Origin Agritech had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Origin Agritech has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Origin Agritech currently holds 241 K in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 180.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Origin Agritech has a current ratio of 0.13, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Origin Agritech's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Origin Agritech currently holds about 6.51 M in cash with (5.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.13. | |
| Origin Agritech has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 13.0% of Origin Agritech outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Check out Origin Agritech Backtesting, Origin Agritech Valuation, Origin Agritech Correlation, Origin Agritech Hype Analysis, Origin Agritech Volatility, Origin Agritech History as well as Origin Agritech Performance. For information on how to trade Origin Stock refer to our How to Trade Origin Stock guide.You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is Agricultural Products & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Agritech. If investors know Origin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Origin Agritech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 1.21 | Revenue Per Share 18.071 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.393 | Return On Assets (0.03) | Return On Equity (3.72) |
The market value of Origin Agritech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Origin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Origin Agritech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Origin Agritech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Origin Agritech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Origin Agritech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Origin Agritech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Origin Agritech is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Origin Agritech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.