Surf Air Mobility Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.22
| SRFM Stock | 2.76 0.25 9.96% |
Surf |
Surf Air Target Price Odds to finish below 2.22
The tendency of Surf Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 2.22 or more in 90 days |
| 2.76 | 90 days | 2.22 | about 90.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Surf Air to drop to 2.22 or more in 90 days from now is about 90.84 (This Surf Air Mobility probability density function shows the probability of Surf Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Surf Air Mobility price to stay between 2.22 and its current price of 2.76 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.68 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.96 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Surf Air will likely underperform. Moreover Surf Air Mobility has an alpha of 1.374, implying that it can generate a 1.37 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Surf Air Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Surf Air
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Surf Air Mobility. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Surf Air Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Surf Air is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Surf Air's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Surf Air Mobility, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Surf Air within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.96 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Surf Air Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Surf Air for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Surf Air Mobility can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Surf Air Mobility is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Surf Air Mobility appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Surf Air Mobility has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 60.51 M. Net Loss for the year was (250.7 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (4.55 M). | |
| Surf Air generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Surf Air Mobility Unveils Four-Phase Transformation Plan and Updated Investor Presentation |
Surf Air Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Surf Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Surf Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Surf Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 M |
Surf Air Technical Analysis
Surf Air's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Surf Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Surf Air Mobility. In general, you should focus on analyzing Surf Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Surf Air Predictive Forecast Models
Surf Air's time-series forecasting models is one of many Surf Air's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Surf Air's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Surf Air Mobility
Checking the ongoing alerts about Surf Air for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Surf Air Mobility help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Surf Air Mobility is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Surf Air Mobility appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Surf Air Mobility has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 60.51 M. Net Loss for the year was (250.7 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (4.55 M). | |
| Surf Air generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Surf Air Mobility Unveils Four-Phase Transformation Plan and Updated Investor Presentation |
Check out Surf Air Backtesting, Surf Air Valuation, Surf Air Correlation, Surf Air Hype Analysis, Surf Air Volatility, Surf Air History as well as Surf Air Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Passenger Airlines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Surf Air. If investors know Surf will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Surf Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (15.64) | Revenue Per Share 10.839 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 4.225 | Return On Assets (1.78) |
The market value of Surf Air Mobility is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Surf that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Surf Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Surf Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Surf Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Surf Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Surf Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Surf Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Surf Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.