Toll Brothers Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 147.42
| TOL Stock | USD 152.36 0.45 0.30% |
Toll |
Toll Brothers Target Price Odds to finish below 147.42
The tendency of Toll Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 147.42 or more in 90 days |
| 152.36 | 90 days | 147.42 | about 35.82 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Toll Brothers to drop to $ 147.42 or more in 90 days from now is about 35.82 (This Toll Brothers probability density function shows the probability of Toll Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Toll Brothers price to stay between $ 147.42 and its current price of $152.36 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.55 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Toll Brothers has a beta of 0.77. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Toll Brothers average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Toll Brothers will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Toll Brothers has an alpha of 0.0487, implying that it can generate a 0.0487 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Toll Brothers Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Toll Brothers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Toll Brothers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Toll Brothers Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Toll Brothers is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Toll Brothers' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Toll Brothers, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Toll Brothers within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.77 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Toll Brothers Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Toll Brothers for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Toll Brothers can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 25th of October 2024 Toll Brothers paid $ 0.23 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Toll Brothers Stock Declines While Market Improves Some Information for Investors |
Toll Brothers Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Toll Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Toll Brothers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Toll Brothers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Toll Brothers Technical Analysis
Toll Brothers' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Toll Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Toll Brothers. In general, you should focus on analyzing Toll Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Toll Brothers Predictive Forecast Models
Toll Brothers' time-series forecasting models is one of many Toll Brothers' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Toll Brothers' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Toll Brothers
Checking the ongoing alerts about Toll Brothers for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Toll Brothers help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 25th of October 2024 Toll Brothers paid $ 0.23 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Toll Brothers Stock Declines While Market Improves Some Information for Investors |
Check out Toll Brothers Backtesting, Toll Brothers Valuation, Toll Brothers Correlation, Toll Brothers Hype Analysis, Toll Brothers Volatility, Toll Brothers History as well as Toll Brothers Performance. For more information on how to buy Toll Stock please use our How to buy in Toll Stock guide.You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toll Brothers. If investors know Toll will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Toll Brothers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Dividend Share 0.88 | Earnings Share 14.48 | Revenue Per Share 100.231 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.015 |
The market value of Toll Brothers is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Toll that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Toll Brothers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Toll Brothers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Toll Brothers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Toll Brothers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toll Brothers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toll Brothers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Toll Brothers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.