Toll Brothers Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TOL Stock | USD 144.92 2.64 1.79% |
Toll Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Toll Brothers' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Toll Brothers' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Toll Brothers fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Toll Brothers' share price is at 54. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Toll Brothers, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.8633 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.2537 | Wall Street Target Price 154.1333 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 4.875 |
Using Toll Brothers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Toll Brothers from the perspective of Toll Brothers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Toll Brothers using Toll Brothers' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Toll using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Toll Brothers' stock price.
Toll Brothers Short Interest
An investor who is long Toll Brothers may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Toll Brothers and may potentially protect profits, hedge Toll Brothers with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 125.5745 | Short Percent 0.0545 | Short Ratio 2.89 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.8 M | 50 Day MA 138.342 |
Toll Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Toll Brothers on the next trading day is expected to be 148.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 174.44.Toll Brothers Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Toll Brothers' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Toll. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Toll can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Toll Brothers. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Toll Brothers' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Toll Brothers.
Toll Brothers Implied Volatility | 0.55 |
Toll Brothers' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Toll Brothers stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Toll Brothers' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Toll Brothers stock will not fluctuate a lot when Toll Brothers' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Toll Brothers on the next trading day is expected to be 148.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 174.44. Toll Brothers after-hype prediction price | USD 144.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toll Brothers to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Toll contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Toll Brothers will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0344% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Toll Brothers trading at USD 144.92, that is roughly USD 0.0498 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Toll Brothers' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Toll Brothers options at the current volatility level of 0.55%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Toll Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Toll Brothers' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Toll Brothers' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Toll Brothers stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Toll Brothers' open interest, investors have to compare it to Toll Brothers' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Toll Brothers is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Toll. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Toll Brothers Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Toll price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Toll using various technical indicators. When you analyze Toll charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Toll Brothers Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Toll Brothers' financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1989-04-30 | Previous Quarter 852.3 M | Current Value 1.3 B | Quarterly Volatility 481.1 M |
Toll Brothers Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Toll Brothers on the next trading day is expected to be 148.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.86, mean absolute percentage error of 11.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 174.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Toll Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Toll Brothers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Toll Brothers Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Toll Brothers | Toll Brothers Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Toll Brothers Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Toll Brothers' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Toll Brothers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 146.58 and 150.51, respectively. We have considered Toll Brothers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Toll Brothers stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Toll Brothers stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.5756 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.8597 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.021 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 174.442 |
Predictive Modules for Toll Brothers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Toll Brothers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Toll Brothers After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Toll Brothers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Toll Brothers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Toll Brothers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Toll Brothers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Toll Brothers' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Toll Brothers' historical news coverage. Toll Brothers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 142.97 and 146.87, respectively. We have considered Toll Brothers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Toll Brothers is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Toll Brothers is based on 3 months time horizon.
Toll Brothers Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Toll Brothers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Toll Brothers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Toll Brothers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.97 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
144.92 | 144.92 | 0.00 |
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Toll Brothers Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Toll Brothers is traded for 144.92. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.29, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Toll is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 60.8%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Toll Brothers is about 177.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 144.82. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.66. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Toll Brothers has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.18. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 13.49. The firm last dividend was issued on the 9th of January 2026. Toll Brothers had 2:1 split on the 11th of July 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toll Brothers to cross-verify your projections.Toll Brothers Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Toll Brothers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Toll Brothers' future price movements. Getting to know how Toll Brothers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Toll Brothers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DECK | Deckers Outdoor | (0.65) | 10 per month | 3.29 | (0.01) | 4.06 | (3.52) | 17.98 | |
| BALL | Ball Corporation | (4.21) | 12 per month | 1.32 | 0.12 | 3.01 | (2.09) | 7.45 | |
| MGA | Magna International | (3.24) | 3 per month | 1.12 | 0.12 | 3.67 | (2.19) | 9.62 | |
| H | Hyatt Hotels | 4.40 | 9 per month | 1.55 | 0.05 | 4.14 | (2.86) | 10.45 | |
| CCK | Crown Holdings | 2.96 | 8 per month | 1.50 | 0.05 | 2.73 | (2.36) | 9.29 | |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts Limited | (4.21) | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.18 | (3.45) | 10.09 | |
| HTHT | Huazhu Group | (4.21) | 16 per month | 1.23 | 0.18 | 2.60 | (2.65) | 11.58 | |
| SN | SharkNinja | 0.02 | 21 per month | 2.27 | 0.15 | 5.93 | (3.37) | 14.41 | |
| DPZ | Dominos Pizza Common | (2.10) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.68 | (2.15) | 6.97 | |
| PAG | Penske Automotive Group | 0.12 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.62 | (2.38) | 6.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for Toll Brothers
For every potential investor in Toll, whether a beginner or expert, Toll Brothers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Toll Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Toll. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Toll Brothers' price trends.Toll Brothers Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Toll Brothers stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Toll Brothers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Toll Brothers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Toll Brothers Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Toll Brothers stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Toll Brothers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Toll Brothers stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Toll Brothers entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0271 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.66) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 146.01 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 145.65 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 4.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.42) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.64) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.27 |
Toll Brothers Risk Indicators
The analysis of Toll Brothers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Toll Brothers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting toll stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.55) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Toll Brothers
The number of cover stories for Toll Brothers depends on current market conditions and Toll Brothers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Toll Brothers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Toll Brothers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Toll Brothers Short Properties
Toll Brothers' future price predictability will typically decrease when Toll Brothers' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Toll Brothers often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Toll Brothers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Toll Brothers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 99.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toll Brothers to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Toll Stock please use our How to buy in Toll Stock guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toll Brothers. If investors know Toll will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Toll Brothers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Dividend Share 0.98 | Earnings Share 13.49 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.027 |
The market value of Toll Brothers is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Toll that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Toll Brothers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Toll Brothers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Toll Brothers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Toll Brothers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toll Brothers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toll Brothers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Toll Brothers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.