Toll Brothers Stock Technical Analysis
| TOL Stock | USD 152.26 1.02 0.67% |
As of the 10th of February, Toll Brothers has the Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0973, semi deviation of 1.16, and Coefficient Of Variation of 876.26. In relation to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model makes it possible for you to check existing technical drivers of Toll Brothers, as well as the relationship between them. Please validate Toll Brothers standard deviation, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the Maximum Drawdown and expected short fall to decide if Toll Brothers is priced more or less accurately, providing market reflects its prevalent price of 152.26 per share. Given that Toll Brothers has jensen alpha of 0.0876, we advise you to double-check Toll Brothers's current market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.
Toll Brothers Momentum Analysis
Momentum indicators are widely used technical indicators which help to measure the pace at which the price of specific equity, such as Toll, fluctuates. Many momentum indicators also complement each other and can be helpful when the market is rising or falling as compared to TollToll Brothers' Momentum analyses are specifically helpful, as they help investors time the market using mark points where the market can reverse. The reversal spots are usually identified through divergence between price movement and momentum.Toll Brothers Analyst Consensus
| Target Price | Consensus | # of Analysts | |
| 154.13 | Strong Buy | 19 | Odds |
Most Toll analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Toll stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Toll Brothers, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Toll conference calls.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toll Brothers. If investors know Toll will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Toll Brothers assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Dividend Share 0.98 | Earnings Share 13.4 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.027 |
Investors evaluate Toll Brothers using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Toll Brothers' intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Toll Brothers' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toll Brothers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toll Brothers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Toll Brothers' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.
Toll Brothers 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Toll Brothers' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Toll Brothers.
| 11/12/2025 |
| 02/10/2026 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Toll Brothers on November 12, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Toll Brothers or generate 0.0% return on investment in Toll Brothers over 90 days. Toll Brothers is related to or competes with Deckers Outdoor, Ball, Magna International, Hyatt Hotels, Crown Holdings, Wynn Resorts, and Huazhu. Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range o... More
Toll Brothers Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Toll Brothers' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Toll Brothers upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0626 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.06 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.37) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.26 |
Toll Brothers Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Toll Brothers' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Toll Brothers' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Toll Brothers historical prices to predict the future Toll Brothers' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0973 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0876 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0904 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1527 |
Toll Brothers February 10, 2026 Technical Indicators
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0973 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1627 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 876.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.64 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0626 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0876 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0904 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1527 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.06 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.37) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.26 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.75 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.68) | |||
| Skewness | 1.46 | |||
| Kurtosis | 3.33 |
Toll Brothers Backtested Returns
Toll Brothers appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Toll Brothers owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.11, which indicates the firm had a 0.11 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Toll Brothers, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Toll Brothers' Coefficient Of Variation of 876.26, risk adjusted performance of 0.0973, and Semi Deviation of 1.16 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Toll Brothers holds a performance score of 8. The entity has a beta of 1.36, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Toll Brothers will likely underperform. Please check Toll Brothers' maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the expected short fall and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Toll Brothers' existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.81 |
Very good predictability
Toll Brothers has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Toll Brothers time series from 12th of November 2025 to 27th of December 2025 and 27th of December 2025 to 10th of February 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Toll Brothers price movement. The serial correlation of 0.81 indicates that around 81.0% of current Toll Brothers price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.81 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.59 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 31.48 |
Toll Brothers technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
Toll Brothers Technical Analysis
The output start index for this execution was one with a total number of output elements of sixty. The Normalized Average True Range is used to analyze tradable apportunities for Toll Brothers across different markets.
About Toll Brothers Technical Analysis
The technical analysis module can be used to analyzes prices, returns, volume, basic money flow, and other market information and help investors to determine the real value of Toll Brothers on a daily or weekly bases. We use both bottom-up as well as top-down valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of Toll Brothers based on its technical analysis. In general, a bottom-up approach, as applied to this company, focuses on Toll Brothers price pattern first instead of the macroeconomic environment surrounding Toll Brothers. By analyzing Toll Brothers's financials, daily price indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, momentum ratios, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Toll Brothers's intrinsic value. As compared to a bottom-up approach, our top-down model examines the macroeconomic factors that affect the industry/economy before zooming in to Toll Brothers specific price patterns or momentum indicators. Please read more on our technical analysis page.
| 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.006153 | 0.007268 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.4 | 1.22 |
Toll Brothers February 10, 2026 Technical Indicators
Most technical analysis of Toll help investors determine whether a current trend will continue and, if not, when it will shift. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Toll from various momentum indicators to cycle indicators. When you analyze Toll charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at different other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0973 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1627 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 876.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.64 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0626 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0876 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0904 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1527 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.06 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.37) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.26 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.75 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.68) | |||
| Skewness | 1.46 | |||
| Kurtosis | 3.33 |
Toll Brothers February 10, 2026 Daily Trend Indicators
Traders often use several different daily volumes and price technical indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Toll stock. With literally thousands of different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 19,417 | ||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.24) | ||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | ||
| Day Median Price | 152.86 | ||
| Day Typical Price | 152.66 | ||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.11) |
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Toll Brothers. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment. For more information on how to buy Toll Stock please use our How to buy in Toll Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toll Brothers. If investors know Toll will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Toll Brothers assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Dividend Share 0.98 | Earnings Share 13.4 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.027 |
Investors evaluate Toll Brothers using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Toll Brothers' intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Toll Brothers' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toll Brothers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toll Brothers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Toll Brothers' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.