Tractor Supply Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 273.27
| TSCO Stock | USD 281.71 8.08 2.95% |
Tractor |
Tractor Supply Target Price Odds to finish below 273.27
The tendency of Tractor Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 273.27 or more in 90 days |
| 281.71 | 90 days | 273.27 | about 24.76 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tractor Supply to drop to $ 273.27 or more in 90 days from now is about 24.76 (This Tractor Supply probability density function shows the probability of Tractor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tractor Supply price to stay between $ 273.27 and its current price of $281.71 at the end of the 90-day period is about 27.18 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Tractor Supply has a beta of 0.83. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Tractor Supply average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Tractor Supply will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Tractor Supply has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Tractor Supply Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Tractor Supply
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tractor Supply. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tractor Supply's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tractor Supply Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tractor Supply is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tractor Supply's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tractor Supply, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tractor Supply within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.83 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 11.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Tractor Supply Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Tractor Supply for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Tractor Supply can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Tractor Supply and Make-A-Wish of Middle Tennessee Fulfill 25th Wish in Honor of Milestone Anniversary |
Tractor Supply Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Tractor Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Tractor Supply's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tractor Supply's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 109.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 397.1 M |
Tractor Supply Technical Analysis
Tractor Supply's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tractor Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tractor Supply. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tractor Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Tractor Supply Predictive Forecast Models
Tractor Supply's time-series forecasting models is one of many Tractor Supply's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tractor Supply's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Tractor Supply
Checking the ongoing alerts about Tractor Supply for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Tractor Supply help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Tractor Supply and Make-A-Wish of Middle Tennessee Fulfill 25th Wish in Honor of Milestone Anniversary |
Check out Tractor Supply Backtesting, Tractor Supply Valuation, Tractor Supply Correlation, Tractor Supply Hype Analysis, Tractor Supply Volatility, Tractor Supply History as well as Tractor Supply Performance. To learn how to invest in Tractor Stock, please use our How to Invest in Tractor Supply guide.You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tractor Supply. If investors know Tractor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Tractor Supply listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Dividend Share 4.33 | Earnings Share 10.29 | Revenue Per Share 137.078 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.016 |
The market value of Tractor Supply is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Tractor that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Tractor Supply's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Tractor Supply's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Tractor Supply's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Tractor Supply's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tractor Supply's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Tractor Supply is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tractor Supply's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.