Universal Insurance Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.87
| UVE Stock | USD 22.88 0.29 1.28% |
Universal |
Universal Insurance Target Price Odds to finish below 18.87
The tendency of Universal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 18.87 or more in 90 days |
| 22.88 | 90 days | 18.87 | about 6.52 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Universal Insurance to drop to $ 18.87 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.52 (This Universal Insurance Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Universal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Universal Insurance price to stay between $ 18.87 and its current price of $22.88 at the end of the 90-day period is about 86.53 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.56 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Universal Insurance will likely underperform. Additionally Universal Insurance Holdings has an alpha of 0.0299, implying that it can generate a 0.0299 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Universal Insurance Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Universal Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Universal Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Universal Insurance Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Universal Insurance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Universal Insurance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Universal Insurance Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Universal Insurance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.56 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Universal Insurance Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Universal Insurance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Universal Insurance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Universal Insurance had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Universal Insurance is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Universal Insurance Holdings has 116.6 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.4, which is OK given its current industry classification. Universal Insurance has a current ratio of 0.65, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Universal to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| About 70.0% of Universal Insurance outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Universal insurance executive chairman Sean Downes sells 338,372 in stock |
Universal Insurance Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Universal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Universal Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Universal Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 397.3 M |
Universal Insurance Technical Analysis
Universal Insurance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Universal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Universal Insurance Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Universal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Universal Insurance Predictive Forecast Models
Universal Insurance's time-series forecasting models is one of many Universal Insurance's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Universal Insurance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Universal Insurance
Checking the ongoing alerts about Universal Insurance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Universal Insurance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Universal Insurance had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Universal Insurance is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Universal Insurance Holdings has 116.6 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.4, which is OK given its current industry classification. Universal Insurance has a current ratio of 0.65, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Universal to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| About 70.0% of Universal Insurance outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Universal insurance executive chairman Sean Downes sells 338,372 in stock |
Check out Universal Insurance Backtesting, Universal Insurance Valuation, Universal Insurance Correlation, Universal Insurance Hype Analysis, Universal Insurance Volatility, Universal Insurance History as well as Universal Insurance Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Universal Insurance. If investors know Universal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Universal Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.301 | Dividend Share 0.64 | Earnings Share 2.48 | Revenue Per Share 52.62 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.076 |
The market value of Universal Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Universal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Universal Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Universal Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Universal Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Universal Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Universal Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Universal Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Universal Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.