Universal Insurance Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| UVE Stock | USD 19.44 0.07 0.36% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Universal Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 19.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.17. Universal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Universal Insurance stock prices and determine the direction of Universal Insurance Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Universal Insurance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Universal |
Open Interest Against 2025-03-21 Universal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Universal Insurance's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Universal Insurance's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Universal Insurance stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Universal Insurance's open interest, investors have to compare it to Universal Insurance's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Universal Insurance is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Universal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Universal Insurance Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Universal Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 19.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Universal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Universal Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Universal Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Universal Insurance | Universal Insurance Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Universal Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Universal Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Universal Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.59 and 21.17, respectively. We have considered Universal Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Universal Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Universal Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0696 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.291 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.1686 |
Predictive Modules for Universal Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Universal Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Universal Insurance
For every potential investor in Universal, whether a beginner or expert, Universal Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Universal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Universal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Universal Insurance's price trends.Universal Insurance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Universal Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Universal Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Universal Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Universal Insurance Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Universal Insurance's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Universal Insurance's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Universal Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Universal Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Universal Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Universal Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Universal Insurance Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Universal Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Universal Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Universal Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting universal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Variance | 3.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.27 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| BTC | Bitcoin | |
| TRX | TRON | |
| BNB | Binance Coin |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal Insurance to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Universal Insurance. If investors know Universal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Universal Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.301 | Dividend Share 0.64 | Earnings Share 2.48 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.076 |
The market value of Universal Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Universal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Universal Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Universal Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Universal Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Universal Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Universal Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Universal Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Universal Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.