Universal Insurance Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| UVE Stock | USD 31.97 0.73 2.34% |
Universal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Universal Insurance stock prices and determine the direction of Universal Insurance Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Universal Insurance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength indicator of Universal Insurance's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.58 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.32 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.34 | Wall Street Target Price 40 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.58) |
Using Universal Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Universal Insurance Holdings from the perspective of Universal Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Universal Insurance using Universal Insurance's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Universal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Universal Insurance's stock price.
Universal Insurance Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Universal Insurance's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Universal. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Universal Insurance stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 27.9762 | Short Percent 0.0222 | Short Ratio 2.76 | Shares Short Prior Month 401.3 K | 50 Day MA 31.8326 |
Universal Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Universal Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 29.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.18.Universal Insurance Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Universal Insurance's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Universal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Universal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Universal Insurance Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Universal Insurance's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Universal Insurance.
Universal Insurance Implied Volatility | 0.49 |
Universal Insurance's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Universal Insurance Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Universal Insurance's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Universal Insurance stock will not fluctuate a lot when Universal Insurance's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Universal Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 29.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.18. Universal Insurance after-hype prediction price | USD 31.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Universal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Universal Insurance Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0306% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Universal Insurance trading at USD 31.97, that is roughly USD 0.009791 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Universal Insurance's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Universal Insurance Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.49%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Universal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Universal Insurance's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Universal Insurance's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Universal Insurance stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Universal Insurance's open interest, investors have to compare it to Universal Insurance's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Universal Insurance is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Universal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Universal Insurance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Universal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Universal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Universal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Universal Insurance Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Universal Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 29.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97, mean absolute percentage error of 1.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Universal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Universal Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Universal Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Universal Insurance | Universal Insurance Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Universal Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Universal Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Universal Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.94 and 32.00, respectively. We have considered Universal Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Universal Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Universal Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4929 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9702 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0303 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.1807 |
Predictive Modules for Universal Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Universal Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Universal Insurance After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Universal Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Universal Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Universal Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Universal Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Universal Insurance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Universal Insurance's historical news coverage. Universal Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.27 and 33.33, respectively. We have considered Universal Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Universal Insurance is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Universal Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Universal Insurance Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Universal Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Universal Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Universal Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 2.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
31.97 | 31.30 | 0.19 |
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Universal Insurance Hype Timeline
On the 5th of February Universal Insurance is traded for 31.97. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Universal is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 31.3 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Universal Insurance is about 1471.01%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.96. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.52 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 58.93 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 515.06 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal Insurance to cross-verify your projections.Universal Insurance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Universal Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Universal Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Universal Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Universal Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UFCS | United Fire Group | (0.42) | 21 per month | 0.98 | 0.12 | 2.14 | (1.90) | 17.21 | |
| HRTG | Heritage Insurance Hldgs | 0.39 | 9 per month | 2.81 | 0.06 | 4.24 | (4.89) | 19.93 | |
| ASIC | Ategrity Specialty Insurance | (0.07) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.97 | (3.74) | 8.64 | |
| SAFT | Safety Insurance Group | 0.55 | 6 per month | 0.98 | 0.17 | 2.22 | (1.95) | 6.16 | |
| BOW | Bowhead Specialty Holdings | (1.81) | 8 per month | 2.52 | 0.01 | 3.56 | (3.89) | 12.02 | |
| DGICA | Donegal Group A | (0.18) | 9 per month | 1.54 | 0.01 | 1.96 | (2.54) | 5.10 | |
| BHF | Brighthouse Financial | (0.19) | 11 per month | 0.65 | 0.12 | 0.67 | (0.57) | 31.02 | |
| IGIC | International General Insurance | (0.01) | 7 per month | 1.08 | 0.12 | 2.20 | (1.66) | 9.34 | |
| BHRB | Burke Herbert Financial | 0.02 | 9 per month | 1.42 | 0.12 | 3.16 | (2.37) | 9.50 | |
| FMBH | First Mid Illinois | 0.34 | 9 per month | 0.98 | 0.18 | 3.52 | (1.45) | 9.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for Universal Insurance
For every potential investor in Universal, whether a beginner or expert, Universal Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Universal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Universal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Universal Insurance's price trends.Universal Insurance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Universal Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Universal Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Universal Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Universal Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Universal Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Universal Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Universal Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Universal Insurance Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Universal Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Universal Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Universal Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting universal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.35 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.55) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Universal Insurance
The number of cover stories for Universal Insurance depends on current market conditions and Universal Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Universal Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Universal Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Universal Insurance Short Properties
Universal Insurance's future price predictability will typically decrease when Universal Insurance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Universal Insurance Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Universal Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Universal Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 419.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal Insurance to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Will Property & Casualty Insurance sector continue expanding? Could Universal diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Universal Insurance. If investors know Universal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Universal Insurance data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Dividend Share 0.64 | Earnings Share 4.24 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.035 | Return On Assets |
Understanding Universal Insurance requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Universal's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Universal Insurance's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Universal Insurance's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Universal Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Universal Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Universal Insurance's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.