Exicure Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19.32
| XCUR Stock | USD 18.38 7.52 69.24% |
Exicure |
Exicure Target Price Odds to finish below 19.32
The tendency of Exicure Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 19.32 after 90 days |
| 18.38 | 90 days | 19.32 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Exicure to stay under $ 19.32 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Exicure probability density function shows the probability of Exicure Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Exicure price to stay between its current price of $ 18.38 and $ 19.32 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.9 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Exicure will likely underperform. In addition to that Exicure has an alpha of 4.6798, implying that it can generate a 4.68 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Exicure Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Exicure
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exicure. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Exicure's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Exicure Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Exicure is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Exicure's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Exicure, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Exicure within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 4.68 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.90 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.24 |
Exicure Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Exicure for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Exicure can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Exicure is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Exicure appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Exicure has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (16.91 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 9.06 M. | |
| Exicure currently holds about 22.2 M in cash with (10.36 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.47. | |
| Exicure has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 47.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Capricor Therapeutics Stock Surges Amid Positive Analyst Ratings - GuruFocus.com |
Exicure Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Exicure Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Exicure's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exicure's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 816 K |
Exicure Technical Analysis
Exicure's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Exicure Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Exicure. In general, you should focus on analyzing Exicure Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Exicure Predictive Forecast Models
Exicure's time-series forecasting models is one of many Exicure's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Exicure's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Exicure
Checking the ongoing alerts about Exicure for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Exicure help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Exicure is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Exicure appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Exicure has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (16.91 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 9.06 M. | |
| Exicure currently holds about 22.2 M in cash with (10.36 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.47. | |
| Exicure has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 47.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Capricor Therapeutics Stock Surges Amid Positive Analyst Ratings - GuruFocus.com |
Additional Tools for Exicure Stock Analysis
When running Exicure's price analysis, check to measure Exicure's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Exicure is operating at the current time. Most of Exicure's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Exicure's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Exicure's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Exicure to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.