Exicure Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| XCUR Stock | USD 6.16 0.27 4.20% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Exicure on the next trading day is expected to be 6.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.33. Exicure Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Exicure's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Exicure's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Exicure fundamentals over time.
As of today the rsi of Exicure's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 2 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 9.28 |
Using Exicure hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Exicure from the perspective of Exicure response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Exicure on the next trading day is expected to be 6.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.33. Exicure after-hype prediction price | USD 6.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exicure to cross-verify your projections. Exicure Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Exicure price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Exicure using various technical indicators. When you analyze Exicure charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Exicure Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Exicure's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2016-12-31 | Previous Quarter 7.9 M | Current Value 4.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 17.4 M |
Exicure Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Exicure on the next trading day is expected to be 6.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Exicure Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Exicure's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Exicure Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Exicure | Exicure Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Exicure Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Exicure's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Exicure's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.06 and 16.79, respectively. We have considered Exicure's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Exicure stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Exicure stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2598 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3118 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0615 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.3301 |
Predictive Modules for Exicure
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exicure. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Exicure's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Exicure After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Exicure at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Exicure or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Exicure, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Exicure Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Exicure's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Exicure's historical news coverage. Exicure's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.31 and 16.01, respectively. We have considered Exicure's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Exicure is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Exicure is based on 3 months time horizon.
Exicure Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Exicure is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Exicure backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Exicure, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.92 | 9.87 | 0.94 | 0.23 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.16 | 6.16 | 0.00 |
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Exicure Hype Timeline
Exicure is at this time traded for 6.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.94, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.23. Exicure is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.92%. %. The volatility of related hype on Exicure is about 3979.84%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.93. About 35.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 3.72. Exicure had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:5 split on the 28th of August 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exicure to cross-verify your projections.Exicure Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Exicure's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Exicure's future price movements. Getting to know how Exicure's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Exicure may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KLTO | Klotho Neurosciences | (0.07) | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 10.34 | (8.57) | 28.13 | |
| SONN | Sonnet Biotherapeutics Holdings | (0.58) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 19.48 | (18.21) | 69.59 | |
| IBIO | iBio Common Stock | (0.07) | 3 per month | 6.70 | 0.17 | 25.23 | (11.24) | 59.00 | |
| MTVA | MetaVia | (0.87) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 11.60 | (20.10) | 79.95 | |
| CLGN | Collplant Biotechnologies | 0.18 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 8.51 | (7.84) | 20.81 | |
| CVKD | Cadrenal Therapeutics Common | (0.96) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.34 | (8.29) | 58.15 | |
| RLYB | Rallybio Corp | (0.07) | 6 per month | 2.98 | 0.07 | 8.33 | (5.71) | 21.25 | |
| NRXS | Neuraxis | 0.15 | 11 per month | 4.61 | 0.09 | 7.88 | (8.64) | 38.80 | |
| NRSN | Neurosense Therapeutics | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 12.82 | (7.48) | 34.62 | |
| TAOX | TAO Synergies | (0.16) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 12.66 | (10.43) | 36.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Exicure
For every potential investor in Exicure, whether a beginner or expert, Exicure's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Exicure Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Exicure. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Exicure's price trends.Exicure Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Exicure stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Exicure could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Exicure by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Exicure Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Exicure stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Exicure shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Exicure stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Exicure entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1839.28 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.90) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.22 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.22) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.27) |
Exicure Risk Indicators
The analysis of Exicure's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Exicure's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting exicure stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.56 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 7.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.57 | |||
| Variance | 91.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 64.36 | |||
| Semi Variance | 54.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.72) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Exicure
The number of cover stories for Exicure depends on current market conditions and Exicure's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Exicure is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Exicure's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Exicure Short Properties
Exicure's future price predictability will typically decrease when Exicure's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Exicure often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Exicure's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exicure's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.5 M |
Additional Tools for Exicure Stock Analysis
When running Exicure's price analysis, check to measure Exicure's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Exicure is operating at the current time. Most of Exicure's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Exicure's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Exicure's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Exicure to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.