Sps Commerce Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| SPSC Stock | USD 193.39 4.26 2.25% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding SPS Commerce is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides SPS Commerce buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding SPSC positions.
Check out SPS Commerce Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For information on how to trade SPS Stock refer to our How to Trade SPS Stock guide. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as SPS and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards SPS Commerce. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state.
SPS |
Execute SPS Commerce Buy or Sell Advice
The SPS recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on SPS Commerce. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in SPS Commerce or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute SPS Commerce's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Small | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Actively responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Very Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
SPS Commerce Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| SPS Commerce generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| SPS Commerce is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| SPS Commerce has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: SPS Commerce Inc Trading 3.13 percent Higher on Nov 21 |
SPS Commerce Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of SPS Commerce's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of SPS Commerce's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of SPS Commerce daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use SPS Commerce price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of SPS Commerce returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for SPS Commerce.
| Mean Return | -0.02 | Value At Risk | -2.74 | Potential Upside | 2.68 | Standard Deviation | 2.17 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of SPS Commerce historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
SPS Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Riverbridge Partners Llc | 2024-09-30 | 702 K | Fmr Inc | 2024-09-30 | 677.1 K | Ameriprise Financial Inc | 2024-06-30 | 621.5 K | Macquarie Group Ltd | 2024-06-30 | 544.5 K | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2024-09-30 | 465.1 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-09-30 | 458.2 K | Amvescap Plc. | 2024-06-30 | 456.1 K | Fred Alger Management, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 455.9 K | Geneva Capital Management | 2024-09-30 | 443.8 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 5.8 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-09-30 | 4.6 M |
SPS Commerce Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (2.1M) | 1.8M | (5.2M) | 12.0M | 13.7M | 14.4M | |
| Change In Cash | 45.4M | (29.6M) | 57.9M | (44.7M) | 56.2M | 59.0M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 58.2M | 72.1M | 93.3M | 80.2M | 112.5M | 118.2M | |
| Depreciation | 16.4M | 18.7M | 24.9M | 28.2M | 34.7M | 36.5M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 2.5M | 5.6M | 5.0M | 3.6M | 8.1M | 8.5M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 13.6M | 16.5M | 19.6M | 19.9M | 19.8M | 9.9M | |
| Net Income | 33.7M | 45.6M | 44.6M | 55.1M | 65.8M | 69.1M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 179.3M | 149.7M | 207.6M | 162.9M | 219.1M | 118.3M | |
| Change Receivables | (6.8M) | (5.9M) | (5.0M) | (6.4M) | (5.8M) | (6.1M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 24.8M | 28.7M | 36.5M | 33.2M | 38.2M | 40.1M | |
| Investments | 10.8M | (5.3M) | (10.0M) | (112.8M) | (145.6M) | (138.4M) |
SPS Commerce Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to SPS Commerce or Software sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that SPS Commerce's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a SPS stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.96 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
SPS Commerce Volatility Alert
SPS Commerce exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -1.38 and kurtosis of 9.78. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure SPS Commerce's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact SPS Commerce's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.SPS Commerce Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing SPS Commerce's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze SPS Commerce's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between SPS Commerce and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as SPS Commerce or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of SPS Commerce's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SPS Commerce by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare SPS Commerce to competition |
| Fundamentals | SPS Commerce | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.11 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0607 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.13 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.16 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 6.91 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 37.57 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.74 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 99.26 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 719.95 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 103.21 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 8.57 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 11.61 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 536.91 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 297.81 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 110.6 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 65.82 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 259.24 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 7.20 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 14.03 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.04 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 3.61 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 22.08 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 132.3 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.41 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 2.08 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 4.71 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 225.44 | |
| Number Of Employees | 2.49 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.84 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 7.11 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 823.84 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 259.05 M | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 270.77 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 2395 shares by Chad Collins of SPS Commerce at 171.3082 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
SPS Commerce Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as SPS . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 12115.35 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5605 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 193.64 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 193.56 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.88 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 4.26 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.44 |
About SPS Commerce Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell SPS Commerce? Buying financial instruments such as SPS Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having SPS Commerce in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Companies producing and distributing toys and different gaming products for kids. The Toys theme has 47 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Toys Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out SPS Commerce Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For information on how to trade SPS Stock refer to our How to Trade SPS Stock guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SPS Commerce. If investors know SPS will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SPS Commerce listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.378 | Earnings Share 2.08 | Revenue Per Share 16.49 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.207 | Return On Assets 0.0607 |
The market value of SPS Commerce is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SPS that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SPS Commerce's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SPS Commerce's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SPS Commerce's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SPS Commerce's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SPS Commerce's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SPS Commerce is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SPS Commerce's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.