Capitol Federal Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CFFN Stock | USD 6.89 0.20 2.99% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Capitol Federal Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 6.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.32. Capitol Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Capitol Federal's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Capitol Federal's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Capitol Federal fundamentals over time.
Capitol |
Capitol Federal Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Capitol Federal's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1999-09-30 | Previous Quarter 317.8 M | Current Value 217.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 192.5 M |
Capitol Federal Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Capitol Federal Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 6.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Capitol Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Capitol Federal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Capitol Federal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Capitol Federal | Capitol Federal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Capitol Federal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Capitol Federal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Capitol Federal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.30 and 8.77, respectively. We have considered Capitol Federal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Capitol Federal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Capitol Federal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4794 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1364 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0223 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.3219 |
Predictive Modules for Capitol Federal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Capitol Federal Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Capitol Federal
For every potential investor in Capitol, whether a beginner or expert, Capitol Federal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Capitol Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Capitol. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Capitol Federal's price trends.View Capitol Federal Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Capitol Federal Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Capitol Federal's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Capitol Federal's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Capitol Federal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Capitol Federal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Capitol Federal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Capitol Federal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Capitol Federal Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 20648.38 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.9524 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.81 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.83 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.18 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.2 |
Capitol Federal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Capitol Federal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Capitol Federal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting capitol stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Variance | 5.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Capitol Federal
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Capitol Federal position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Capitol Federal will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Capitol Stock
| 0.88 | AX | Axos Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | BY | Byline Bancorp Fiscal Year End 23rd of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | PB | Prosperity Bancshares Fiscal Year End 22nd of January 2025 | PairCorr |
Moving against Capitol Stock
| 0.51 | TFC-PO | Truist Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | WF | Woori Financial Group | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | TFC-PR | Truist Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | CFG-PE | Citizens Financial | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Capitol Federal could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Capitol Federal when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Capitol Federal - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Capitol Federal Financial to buy it.
The correlation of Capitol Federal is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Capitol Federal moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Capitol Federal Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Capitol Federal can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Capitol Federal to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Capitol Federal. If investors know Capitol will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Capitol Federal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.167 | Dividend Share 0.34 | Earnings Share 0.29 | Revenue Per Share 1.278 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.11 |
The market value of Capitol Federal Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Capitol that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Capitol Federal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Capitol Federal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Capitol Federal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Capitol Federal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Capitol Federal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Capitol Federal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Capitol Federal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.