Capitol Federal Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| CFFN Stock | USD 7.28 0.02 0.27% |
Capitol Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Capitol Federal's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Capitol Federal's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Capitol Federal fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Capitol Federal's stock price is about 63 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Capitol, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.328 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.15 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.635 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.7 | Wall Street Target Price 7 |
Using Capitol Federal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Capitol Federal Financial from the perspective of Capitol Federal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Capitol Federal using Capitol Federal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Capitol using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Capitol Federal's stock price.
Capitol Federal Short Interest
An investor who is long Capitol Federal may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Capitol Federal and may potentially protect profits, hedge Capitol Federal with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 6.2437 | Short Percent 0.0357 | Short Ratio 3.12 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.4 M | 50 Day MA 6.784 |
Capitol Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Capitol Federal Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 7.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.78.Capitol Federal Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Capitol Federal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Capitol. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Capitol can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Capitol Federal Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Capitol Federal's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Capitol Federal.
Capitol Federal Implied Volatility | 1.63 |
Capitol Federal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Capitol Federal Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Capitol Federal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Capitol Federal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Capitol Federal's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Capitol Federal Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 7.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.78. Capitol Federal after-hype prediction price | USD 7.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Capitol Federal to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Capitol Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Capitol Federal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Capitol Federal's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Capitol Federal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Capitol Federal's open interest, investors have to compare it to Capitol Federal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Capitol Federal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Capitol. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Capitol Federal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Capitol price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Capitol using various technical indicators. When you analyze Capitol charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Capitol Federal Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Capitol Federal Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 7.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Capitol Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Capitol Federal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Capitol Federal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Capitol Federal | Capitol Federal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Capitol Federal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Capitol Federal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Capitol Federal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.68 and 8.88, respectively. We have considered Capitol Federal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Capitol Federal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Capitol Federal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.2815 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.029 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.098 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0145 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.78 |
Predictive Modules for Capitol Federal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Capitol Federal Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Capitol Federal After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Capitol Federal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Capitol Federal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Capitol Federal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Capitol Federal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Capitol Federal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Capitol Federal's historical news coverage. Capitol Federal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.67 and 8.89, respectively. We have considered Capitol Federal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Capitol Federal is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Capitol Federal Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Capitol Federal Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Capitol Federal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Capitol Federal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Capitol Federal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 1.60 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.28 | 7.28 | 0.00 |
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Capitol Federal Hype Timeline
Capitol Federal Financial is currently traded for 7.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Capitol is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.31%. %. The volatility of related hype on Capitol Federal is about 590.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.36. About 82.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.89. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Capitol Federal Financial last dividend was issued on the 6th of February 2026. The entity had 22637:10000 split on the 22nd of December 2010. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Capitol Federal to cross-verify your projections.Capitol Federal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Capitol Federal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Capitol Federal's future price movements. Getting to know how Capitol Federal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Capitol Federal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HAFC | Hanmi Financial | 0.39 | 10 per month | 2.43 | (0.01) | 3.12 | (1.93) | 18.16 | |
| MOFG | MidWestOne Financial Group | 0.80 | 7 per month | 1.37 | 0.13 | 3.39 | (2.70) | 13.04 | |
| CPF | Central Pacific Financial | (0.23) | 8 per month | 1.72 | 0.06 | 2.86 | (2.19) | 9.76 | |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial | 0.39 | 28 per month | 1.63 | 0.08 | 4.71 | (3.36) | 12.71 | |
| ESQ | Esquire Financial Holdings | (0.53) | 10 per month | 1.59 | 0.05 | 3.91 | (2.66) | 8.48 | |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Bank | (0.16) | 6 per month | 1.10 | 0.23 | 3.75 | (2.09) | 8.00 | |
| MCB | Metropolitan Bank Holding | 0.92 | 8 per month | 1.23 | 0.16 | 3.81 | (1.92) | 19.32 | |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.89 | 0.16 | 2.73 | (1.57) | 8.89 | |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 0.11 | 18 per month | 1.35 | 0.08 | 3.59 | (2.50) | 10.05 | |
| DCOM | Dime Community Bancshares | 0.99 | 6 per month | 1.29 | 0.16 | 3.51 | (2.56) | 11.73 |
Other Forecasting Options for Capitol Federal
For every potential investor in Capitol, whether a beginner or expert, Capitol Federal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Capitol Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Capitol. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Capitol Federal's price trends.Capitol Federal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Capitol Federal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Capitol Federal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Capitol Federal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Capitol Federal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Capitol Federal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Capitol Federal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Capitol Federal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Capitol Federal Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Capitol Federal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Capitol Federal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Capitol Federal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting capitol stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Variance | 2.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Capitol Federal
The number of cover stories for Capitol Federal depends on current market conditions and Capitol Federal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Capitol Federal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Capitol Federal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Capitol Federal Short Properties
Capitol Federal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Capitol Federal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Capitol Federal Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Capitol Federal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Capitol Federal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 130 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 248.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Capitol Federal to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could Capitol diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Capitol Federal. Projected growth potential of Capitol fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Capitol Federal data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.328 | Dividend Share 0.34 | Earnings Share 0.56 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.204 |
Investors evaluate Capitol Federal Financial using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Capitol Federal's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Capitol Federal's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Capitol Federal's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Capitol Federal should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Capitol Federal's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.