Capitol Federal Financial Stock Price Patterns

CFFN Stock  USD 7.30  0.20  2.82%   
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Capitol Federal's share price is approaching 48 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Capitol Federal, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 48

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Capitol Federal's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Capitol Federal Financial, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Capitol Federal's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.319
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.15
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.635
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.7
Wall Street Target Price
7
Using Capitol Federal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Capitol Federal Financial from the perspective of Capitol Federal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Capitol Federal using Capitol Federal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Capitol using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Capitol Federal's stock price.

Capitol Federal Short Interest

An investor who is long Capitol Federal may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Capitol Federal and may potentially protect profits, hedge Capitol Federal with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
6.2323
Short Percent
0.0357
Short Ratio
3.12
Shares Short Prior Month
3.4 M
50 Day MA
6.7646

Capitol Federal Financial Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Capitol Federal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Capitol. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Capitol can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Capitol Federal Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Capitol Federal's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Capitol Federal.

Capitol Federal Implied Volatility

    
  1.63  
Capitol Federal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Capitol Federal Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Capitol Federal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Capitol Federal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Capitol Federal's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Capitol Federal to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Capitol because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Capitol Federal after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 7.3  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Capitol Federal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.598.219.83
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
5.917.539.16
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
6.377.007.77
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.150.150.15
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Capitol Federal. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Capitol Federal's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Capitol Federal's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Capitol Federal Financial.

Capitol Federal After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Capitol Federal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Capitol Federal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Capitol Federal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Capitol Federal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Capitol Federal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Capitol Federal's historical news coverage. Capitol Federal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.68 and 8.92, respectively. We have considered Capitol Federal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
7.30
7.30
After-hype Price
8.92
Upside
Capitol Federal is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Capitol Federal Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.

Capitol Federal Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Capitol Federal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Capitol Federal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Capitol Federal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.33 
1.62
  0.11 
  0.05 
8 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
7.30
7.30
0.00 
506.25  
Notes

Capitol Federal Hype Timeline

Capitol Federal Financial is currently traded for 7.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Capitol is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on Capitol Federal is about 1102.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.25. About 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.89. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Capitol Federal Financial last dividend was issued on the 6th of February 2026. The entity had 22637:10000 split on the 22nd of December 2010. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Capitol Federal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Capitol Federal Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Capitol Federal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Capitol Federal's future price movements. Getting to know how Capitol Federal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Capitol Federal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
HAFCHanmi Financial(0.32)8 per month 2.43 (0.02) 3.12 (1.93) 18.16 
MOFGMidWestOne Financial Group 0.80 7 per month 1.44  0.10  3.39 (2.70) 13.04 
CPFCentral Pacific Financial(0.32)14 per month 1.72  0.05  2.86 (2.19) 9.76 
HFWAHeritage Financial(0.27)35 per month 1.67  0.06  4.71 (3.36) 12.71 
ESQEsquire Financial Holdings(0.32)3 per month 1.72  0.03  3.91 (2.77) 8.48 
AMALAmalgamated Bank(0.32)15 per month 1.10  0.23  3.75 (2.09) 8.00 
MCBMetropolitan Bank Holding(0.72)16 per month 1.23  0.15  3.81 (1.92) 19.32 
SBSISouthside Bancshares 0.43 10 per month 0.89  0.15  2.73 (1.57) 8.89 
FSBCFive Star Bancorp(0.18)8 per month 1.34  0.06  3.59 (2.50) 10.05 
DCOMDime Community Bancshares(0.25)24 per month 1.32  0.13  3.51 (2.56) 11.73 

Capitol Federal Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Capitol price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Capitol using various technical indicators. When you analyze Capitol charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Capitol Federal Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Capitol Federal stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Capitol Federal Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Capitol Federal based on analysis of Capitol Federal hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Capitol Federal's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Capitol Federal's related companies.
 2023 2024 2025 2026 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.05870.05360.04820.0382
Price To Sales Ratio2.01.981.781.69

Pair Trading with Capitol Federal

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Capitol Federal position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Capitol Federal will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Capitol Stock

  0.8BIRG Bank of Ireland Group PLCPairCorr
  0.82EBMT Eagle Bancorp MontanaPairCorr
  0.91EFSC Enterprise FinancialPairCorr
  0.86WSFS WSFS FinancialPairCorr
  0.83FIBK First Interstate BanPairCorr

Moving against Capitol Stock

  0.78601658 Postal Savings BankPairCorr
  0.75601665 Qilu BankPairCorr
  0.41BBC BNK BankingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Capitol Federal could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Capitol Federal when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Capitol Federal - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Capitol Federal Financial to buy it.
The correlation of Capitol Federal is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Capitol Federal moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Capitol Federal Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Capitol Federal can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Capitol Federal Financial offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Capitol Federal's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Capitol Federal Financial Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Capitol Federal Financial Stock:
Check out Capitol Federal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could Capitol diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Capitol Federal. Projected growth potential of Capitol fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Capitol Federal data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.319
Dividend Share
0.255
Earnings Share
0.56
Revenue Per Share
1.615
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.204
Investors evaluate Capitol Federal Financial using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Capitol Federal's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Capitol Federal's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Capitol Federal's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Capitol Federal should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Capitol Federal's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.