Oaktree Specialty Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| OCSL Stock | USD 16.34 0.06 0.37% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oaktree Specialty Lending on the next trading day is expected to be 16.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.38. Oaktree Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Oaktree Specialty's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Oaktree Specialty's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Oaktree Specialty fundamentals over time.
Oaktree |
Oaktree Specialty Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Oaktree Specialty's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2007-09-30 | Previous Quarter 96.3 M | Current Value 64 M | Quarterly Volatility 45.8 M |
Oaktree Specialty Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oaktree Specialty Lending on the next trading day is expected to be 16.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oaktree Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oaktree Specialty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Oaktree Specialty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Oaktree Specialty | Oaktree Specialty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Oaktree Specialty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Oaktree Specialty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oaktree Specialty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.47 and 17.49, respectively. We have considered Oaktree Specialty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oaktree Specialty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oaktree Specialty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2039 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.119 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.3804 |
Predictive Modules for Oaktree Specialty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oaktree Specialty Lending. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oaktree Specialty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Oaktree Specialty
For every potential investor in Oaktree, whether a beginner or expert, Oaktree Specialty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oaktree Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oaktree. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oaktree Specialty's price trends.Oaktree Specialty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oaktree Specialty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oaktree Specialty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oaktree Specialty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Oaktree Specialty Lending Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Oaktree Specialty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Oaktree Specialty's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Oaktree Specialty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oaktree Specialty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oaktree Specialty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oaktree Specialty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oaktree Specialty Lending entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1735.84 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.6 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.37 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.36 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.06 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.95 |
Oaktree Specialty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Oaktree Specialty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oaktree Specialty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oaktree stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7356 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9948 | |||
| Variance | 0.9896 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Oaktree Specialty. If investors know Oaktree will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Oaktree Specialty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | Earnings Share 0.72 | Revenue Per Share 4.913 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets 0.0575 |
The market value of Oaktree Specialty Lending is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Oaktree that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Oaktree Specialty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Oaktree Specialty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Oaktree Specialty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Oaktree Specialty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Oaktree Specialty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Oaktree Specialty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oaktree Specialty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.