Assured Guaranty Stock Price Prediction
| AGO Stock | USD 94.69 1.60 1.72% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
66
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.219 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.34 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.278 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.679 | Wall Street Target Price 106.5 |
Using Assured Guaranty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Assured Guaranty from the perspective of Assured Guaranty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Assured Guaranty Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Assured Guaranty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Assured. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Assured can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Assured Guaranty. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Assured Guaranty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Assured Guaranty.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Assured Guaranty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Assured because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Assured Guaranty after-hype prediction price | USD 95.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Assured Guaranty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Assured Guaranty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Assured Guaranty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Assured Guaranty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Assured Guaranty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Assured Guaranty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Assured Guaranty's historical news coverage. Assured Guaranty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 93.46 and 96.92, respectively. We have considered Assured Guaranty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Assured Guaranty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Assured Guaranty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Assured Guaranty Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Assured Guaranty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Assured Guaranty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Assured Guaranty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 1.73 | 0.50 | 0.14 | 10 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
94.69 | 95.19 | 0.53 |
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Assured Guaranty Hype Timeline
On the 26th of November Assured Guaranty is traded for 94.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.5, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.14. Assured is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 95.19 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 106.79%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.53%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Assured Guaranty is about 377.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 94.83. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.37 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 739 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 788 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Assured Guaranty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Assured Guaranty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Assured Guaranty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Assured Guaranty's future price movements. Getting to know how Assured Guaranty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Assured Guaranty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AEL | American Equity Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.65 | 0.15 | 2.87 | (2.11) | 17.90 | |
| AXS | AXIS Capital Holdings | 0.24 | 12 per month | 1.04 | 0.11 | 2.50 | (1.52) | 7.42 | |
| MBI | MBIA Inc | (0.07) | 6 per month | 2.40 | 0.20 | 7.12 | (4.02) | 22.10 | |
| AIZ | Assurant | 1.69 | 8 per month | 1.20 | 0.1 | 1.72 | (1.58) | 7.97 | |
| AFG | American Financial Group | 0.43 | 9 per month | 0.93 | 0.09 | 2.48 | (1.70) | 6.23 |
Assured Guaranty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Assured price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Assured using various technical indicators. When you analyze Assured charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About Assured Guaranty Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Assured Guaranty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Assured Guaranty, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Assured Guaranty based on analysis of Assured Guaranty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Assured Guaranty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Assured Guaranty's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0163 | 0.0153 | 0.0118 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.73 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
Story Coverage note for Assured Guaranty
The number of cover stories for Assured Guaranty depends on current market conditions and Assured Guaranty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Assured Guaranty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Assured Guaranty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Assured Guaranty Short Properties
Assured Guaranty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Assured Guaranty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Assured Guaranty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Assured Guaranty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Assured Guaranty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.4 B |
Check out Assured Guaranty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Assured Stock, please use our How to Invest in Assured Guaranty guide.You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Assured Guaranty. If investors know Assured will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Assured Guaranty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.219 | Dividend Share 1.21 | Earnings Share 12.97 | Revenue Per Share 15.821 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 |
The market value of Assured Guaranty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Assured that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Assured Guaranty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Assured Guaranty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Assured Guaranty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Assured Guaranty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Assured Guaranty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Assured Guaranty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Assured Guaranty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.