Conocophillips Stock Price Prediction
| COP Stock | USD 106.10 5.65 5.06% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
60
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.83 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.7445 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.3733 | Wall Street Target Price 132.3892 |
Using ConocoPhillips hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ConocoPhillips from the perspective of ConocoPhillips response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
ConocoPhillips Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ConocoPhillips' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ConocoPhillips. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ConocoPhillips can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ConocoPhillips. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ConocoPhillips' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ConocoPhillips.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ConocoPhillips to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ConocoPhillips because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ConocoPhillips after-hype prediction price | USD 111.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ConocoPhillips |
ConocoPhillips After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ConocoPhillips at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ConocoPhillips or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ConocoPhillips, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ConocoPhillips Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ConocoPhillips' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ConocoPhillips' historical news coverage. ConocoPhillips' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 110.02 and 113.50, respectively. We have considered ConocoPhillips' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ConocoPhillips is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ConocoPhillips is based on 3 months time horizon.
ConocoPhillips Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ConocoPhillips is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ConocoPhillips backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ConocoPhillips, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.74 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
106.10 | 111.76 | 0.01 |
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ConocoPhillips Hype Timeline
On the 25th of November ConocoPhillips is traded for 106.10. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. ConocoPhillips is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 111.76 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. The volatility of related hype on ConocoPhillips is about 1385.84%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 106.10. The company reported the last year's revenue of 57.86 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 10.92 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 39.6 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out ConocoPhillips Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.ConocoPhillips Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ConocoPhillips' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ConocoPhillips' future price movements. Getting to know how ConocoPhillips' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ConocoPhillips may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FANG | Diamondback Energy | 1.23 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.00 | (3.91) | 9.60 | |
| PXD | Pioneer Natural Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.43 | (2.71) | 6.32 | |
| APA | APA Corporation | 0.50 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.31 | (5.80) | 17.30 | |
| HES | Hess Corporation | (1.64) | 10 per month | 1.23 | 0.01 | 2.25 | (2.31) | 5.16 | |
| CTRA | Coterra Energy | 0.08 | 11 per month | 1.27 | 0.08 | 2.27 | (1.94) | 8.03 | |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum | 0.58 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.04 | (2.77) | 7.68 | |
| DVN | Devon Energy | (0.09) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.17 | (2.95) | 7.21 | |
| EOG | EOG Resources | 0.31 | 8 per month | 1.36 | 0.01 | 2.49 | (2.88) | 7.05 | |
| PR | Permian Resources | 0.16 | 7 per month | 1.94 | 0.05 | 2.90 | (3.33) | 7.95 |
ConocoPhillips Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ConocoPhillips price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ConocoPhillips using various technical indicators. When you analyze ConocoPhillips charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About ConocoPhillips Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ConocoPhillips stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ConocoPhillips, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips based on analysis of ConocoPhillips hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ConocoPhillips's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ConocoPhillips's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0247 | 0.0381 | 0.04 | 0.042 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.09 | 1.92 | 2.41 | 2.53 |
Story Coverage note for ConocoPhillips
The number of cover stories for ConocoPhillips depends on current market conditions and ConocoPhillips' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ConocoPhillips is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ConocoPhillips' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ConocoPhillips Short Properties
ConocoPhillips' future price predictability will typically decrease when ConocoPhillips' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ConocoPhillips often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ConocoPhillips' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ConocoPhillips' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.6 B |
Additional Tools for ConocoPhillips Stock Analysis
When running ConocoPhillips' price analysis, check to measure ConocoPhillips' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ConocoPhillips is operating at the current time. Most of ConocoPhillips' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ConocoPhillips' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ConocoPhillips' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ConocoPhillips to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.