First Guaranty Bancshares Stock Price Prediction

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 11.62 13.52 15.42 Details

1 Analysts Consensus Low Target High 11.15 12.25 13.60 Details

Earnings Estimates (0) Low Projected EPS High 0.01 0.01 0.01 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Guaranty. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Guaranty's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Guaranty's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First Guaranty Bancshares.

First Guaranty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

First Guaranty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

First Guaranty Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Expected Return	Period Volatility	Hype Elasticity	Related Elasticity	News Density	Related Density	Expected Hype
0.44	1.90	0.10	0.27	8 Events / Month	2 Events / Month	In about 8 days

Latest traded price	Expected after-news price	Potential return on next major news	Average after-hype volatility
13.40	13.30	0.75	826.09   Notes

First Guaranty Hype Timeline

First Guaranty Bancshares is currently traded for 13.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.27. First is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 13.3. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.75%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.44%. The volatility of related hype on First Guaranty is about 308.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.67. About 52.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.75. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Guaranty Bancshares last dividend was issued on the 20th of September 2024. The entity had 11:10 split on the 14th of December 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out First Guaranty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

First Guaranty Related Hype Analysis

First Guaranty Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

The successful prediction of First Guaranty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Guaranty Bancshares, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Guaranty based on analysis of First Guaranty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.

The number of cover stories for First Guaranty depends on current market conditions and First Guaranty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Guaranty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Guaranty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

First Guaranty's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Guaranty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Guaranty Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Guaranty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Guaranty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

When running First Guaranty's price analysis, check to measure First Guaranty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Guaranty is operating at the current time. Most of First Guaranty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Guaranty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Guaranty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Guaranty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.