First Guaranty Stock Forward View
| FGBI Stock | USD 8.42 0.02 0.24% |
First Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Guaranty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of First Guaranty's share price is above 70 as of 30th of January 2026. This usually indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling First, making its price go up or down. Momentum 71
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.45) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.29) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.38 | Wall Street Target Price 7 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.32) |
Using First Guaranty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Guaranty Bancshares from the perspective of First Guaranty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Guaranty Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 7.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.95. First Guaranty after-hype prediction price | USD 8.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Guaranty to cross-verify your projections. First Guaranty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Guaranty Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the First Guaranty's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2007-09-30 | Previous Quarter 714.6 M | Current Value 753.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 158.4 M |
First Guaranty Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Guaranty Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 7.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Guaranty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Guaranty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Guaranty | First Guaranty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Guaranty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Guaranty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Guaranty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.20 and 12.58, respectively. We have considered First Guaranty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Guaranty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Guaranty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.608 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2411 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0414 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.947 |
Predictive Modules for First Guaranty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Guaranty Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Guaranty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Guaranty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Guaranty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Guaranty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Guaranty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Guaranty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Guaranty's historical news coverage. First Guaranty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.70 and 13.14, respectively. We have considered First Guaranty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Guaranty is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Guaranty Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Guaranty Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Guaranty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Guaranty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Guaranty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.62 | 4.69 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.42 | 8.42 | 0.00 |
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First Guaranty Hype Timeline
First Guaranty Bancshares is currently traded for 8.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. First is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.62%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Guaranty is about 3813.01%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.50. About 61.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.69. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Guaranty Bancshares recorded a loss per share of 4.42. The entity last dividend was issued on the 26th of December 2025. The firm had 11:10 split on the 14th of December 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Guaranty to cross-verify your projections.First Guaranty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Guaranty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Guaranty's future price movements. Getting to know how First Guaranty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Guaranty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CFSB | CFSB Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| FNWB | First Northwest Bancorp | (0.20) | 7 per month | 0.91 | 0.17 | 3.29 | (2.26) | 11.68 | |
| UNB | Union Bankshares | 0.13 | 9 per month | 2.11 | (0.01) | 2.72 | (3.21) | 11.80 | |
| PBHC | Pathfinder Bancorp | (0.45) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.06 | (2.97) | 10.87 | |
| WSBK | Winchester Bancorp Common | 0.09 | 2 per month | 0.47 | 0.14 | 1.75 | (1.10) | 7.47 | |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings | 0.08 | 9 per month | 0.77 | (0) | 1.34 | (1.04) | 4.66 | |
| AUBN | Auburn National Bancorporation | 1.23 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.68 | (4.38) | 17.69 | |
| IROQ | IF Bancorp | 0.03 | 11 per month | 0.48 | 0.06 | 1.38 | (0.85) | 5.02 | |
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.80 | 0.17 | 2.39 | (1.48) | 5.78 | |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp | 0.26 | 9 per month | 1.06 | 0.01 | 1.81 | (2.09) | 6.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Guaranty
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Guaranty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Guaranty's price trends.First Guaranty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Guaranty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Guaranty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Guaranty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Guaranty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Guaranty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Guaranty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Guaranty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Guaranty Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First Guaranty Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Guaranty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Guaranty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.06 | |||
| Variance | 25.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 24.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 22.11 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Guaranty
The number of cover stories for First Guaranty depends on current market conditions and First Guaranty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Guaranty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Guaranty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Guaranty Short Properties
First Guaranty's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Guaranty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Guaranty Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Guaranty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Guaranty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 845.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Guaranty to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Is there potential for Regional Banks market expansion? Will First introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Guaranty. Market participants price First higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about First Guaranty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.45) | Earnings Share (4.42) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.74) | Return On Assets |
First Guaranty Bancshares's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on First's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate First Guaranty's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Since First Guaranty's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Guaranty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Guaranty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Guaranty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.