First Guaranty Bancshares Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| FGBI Stock | USD 10.28 0.07 0.68% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your typical level of risk aversion, our recommendation regarding First Guaranty Bancshares is 'Strong Sell'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of First Guaranty's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out First Guaranty Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as First and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards First Guaranty Bancshares. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics.
First |
Execute First Guaranty Buy or Sell Advice
The First recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on First Guaranty Bancshares. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in First Guaranty Bancshares or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute First Guaranty's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Sell
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Barely shadows the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Hold | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
First Guaranty Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| First Guaranty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 52.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: First Guaranty Bancshares sets preferred stock dividend |
First Guaranty Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of First Guaranty's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of First Guaranty's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of First Guaranty daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use First Guaranty Bancshares price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of First Guaranty returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for First Guaranty.
| Mean Return | 0.03 | Value At Risk | -4.16 | Potential Upside | 3.87 | Standard Deviation | 2.25 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of First Guaranty historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
First Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2024-09-30 | 15.6 K | Qube Research & Technologies | 2024-09-30 | 13.7 K | Citadel Advisors Llc | 2024-09-30 | 10.8 K | Wells Fargo & Co | 2024-09-30 | 8 K | Cwm, Llc Duplicate | 2024-09-30 | 6 K | Advisor Group Holdings, Inc. | 2024-09-30 | 3.5 K | Barclays Plc | 2024-09-30 | 2.1 K | Citigroup Inc | 2024-09-30 | 1.7 K | Custom Portfolio Group Llc | 2024-06-30 | 1.4 K | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-09-30 | 297.8 K | Bridgeway Capital Management, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 81.3 K |
First Guaranty Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 232.2M | (37.7M) | (178.7M) | 203.2M | 233.7M | 245.4M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 17.4M | 24.3M | 34.2M | 6.8M | 6.1M | 5.8M | |
| Depreciation | 3.8M | 4.8M | 4.1M | 4.0M | 4.6M | 2.8M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 2.9M | 795K | 3.7M | 4.5M | 5.1M | 3.5M | |
| Dividends Paid | 6.2M | 7.8M | 9.2M | 9.7M | 11.2M | 6.2M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 6.3M | 2.2M | 2.6M | 15.0M | 17.2M | 18.1M | |
| Net Income | 20.3M | 27.3M | 28.9M | 9.2M | 10.6M | 14.8M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 299.6M | 261.9M | 83.2M | 286.5M | 329.4M | 345.9M | |
| Investments | (128.5M) | (453.3M) | (467.8M) | (226.1M) | (203.5M) | (213.6M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 28.7M | 29.9M | (67.0M) | 134.2M | 154.4M | 162.1M | |
| Change To Netincome | 4.0M | 2.9M | 1.6M | 1.9M | 1.7M | 2.2M |
First Guaranty Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to First Guaranty or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that First Guaranty's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a First stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
First Guaranty Volatility Alert
First Guaranty Bancshares currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of -0.02 and Jensen Alpha of 0.01. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure First Guaranty's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact First Guaranty's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.First Guaranty Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing First Guaranty's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze First Guaranty's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between First Guaranty and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as First Guaranty or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of First Guaranty's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Guaranty by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare First Guaranty to competition |
| Fundamentals | First Guaranty | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0515 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0035 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.13 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.11 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | (2.52 M) | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 12.5 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 51.91 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 6.90 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 13.56 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 10.73 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.58 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 1.35 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 91.57 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 95.48 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 15.92 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 9.22 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 120.4 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 11.23 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 275.4 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 11.35 % | 48.70 % |
| Book Value Per Share | 17.86 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 21.71 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.38 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.84 X | 3.12 X |
| Target Price | 12.75 | |
| Number Of Employees | 486 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.32 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 128.55 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 3.55 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 67.97 M | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.04 % | |
| Five Year Return | 3.18 % | |
| Net Asset | 3.55 B |
Note: Acquisition by Hood William K of 2600 shares of First Guaranty at 21.6 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
First Guaranty Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as First . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About First Guaranty Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell First Guaranty Bancshares? Buying financial instruments such as First Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out First Guaranty Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Guaranty. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Guaranty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.033 | Earnings Share 0.84 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets |
The market value of First Guaranty Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Guaranty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Guaranty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Guaranty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Guaranty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Guaranty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Guaranty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Guaranty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.