German American Bancorp Stock Price Prediction

GABC Stock  USD 45.66  0.30  0.65%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of German American's share price is above 70 at the present time. This usually indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling German, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

70

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of German American's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with German American Bancorp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting German American's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.02)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.66
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.7583
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.2
Wall Street Target Price
47.8333
Using German American hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of German American Bancorp from the perspective of German American response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in German American to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying German because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

German American after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 45.29  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out German American Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
31.5033.6850.23
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
42.1044.2846.46
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
28.8931.7535.24
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.680.700.71
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as German American. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against German American's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, German American's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in German American Bancorp.

German American After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of German American at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in German American or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of German American, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

German American Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting German American's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on German American's historical news coverage. German American's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.11 and 47.47, respectively. We have considered German American's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
45.66
45.29
After-hype Price
47.47
Upside
German American is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of German American Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.

German American Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as German American is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading German American backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with German American, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.25 
2.18
  0.37 
  0.10 
8 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
45.66
45.29
0.81 
148.30  
Notes

German American Hype Timeline

German American Bancorp is currently traded for 45.66. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.37, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. German is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 45.29. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 148.3%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.81%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on German American is about 519.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 45.56. About 54.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.83. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. German American Bancorp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.43. The entity last dividend was issued on the 8th of November 2024. The firm had 3:2 split on the 24th of April 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out German American Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

German American Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to German American's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict German American's future price movements. Getting to know how German American's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how German American may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

German American Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine German price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for German using various technical indicators. When you analyze German charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About German American Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of German American stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as German American Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of German American based on analysis of German American hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to German American's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to German American's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.02150.02460.03070.0295
Price To Sales Ratio4.74.233.824.69

Story Coverage note for German American

The number of cover stories for German American depends on current market conditions and German American's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that German American is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about German American's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

German American Short Properties

German American's future price predictability will typically decrease when German American's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of German American Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential German American's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. German American's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding29.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments115.3 M

Complementary Tools for German Stock analysis

When running German American's price analysis, check to measure German American's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy German American is operating at the current time. Most of German American's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of German American's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move German American's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of German American to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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