Markel Stock Price Patterns
| MKL Stock | USD 2,102 7.12 0.34% |
Momentum 30
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.259 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 24.87 | EPS Estimate Current Year 120.055 | EPS Estimate Next Year 123.46 | Wall Street Target Price 2.1 K |
Using Markel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Markel from the perspective of Markel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Markel using Markel's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Markel using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Markel's stock price.
Markel Short Interest
An investor who is long Markel may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Markel and may potentially protect profits, hedge Markel with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 2 K | Short Percent 0.0158 | Short Ratio 5.25 | Shares Short Prior Month 220.3 K | 50 Day MA 2.1 K |
Markel Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Markel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Markel. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Markel can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Markel. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Markel's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Markel.
Markel Implied Volatility | 0.23 |
Markel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Markel stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Markel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Markel stock will not fluctuate a lot when Markel's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Markel to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Markel because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Markel after-hype prediction price | USD 2101.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Markel contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Markel will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0144% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Markel trading at USD 2102.15, that is roughly USD 0.3 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Markel's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Markel options at the current volatility level of 0.23%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Markel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Markel After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Markel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Markel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Markel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Markel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Markel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Markel's historical news coverage. Markel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2,101 and 2,102, respectively. We have considered Markel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Markel is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Markel is based on 3 months time horizon.
Markel Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Markel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Markel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Markel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 0.78 | 0.51 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2,102 | 2,102 | 0.02 |
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Markel Hype Timeline
On the 8th of February Markel is traded for 2,102. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.51, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Markel is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2101.64. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 6.18%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Markel is about 371.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2,102. About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.46. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Markel has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 720.95. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 169.22. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Markel had 6:5 split on the 11th of September 1989. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Markel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Markel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Markel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Markel's future price movements. Getting to know how Markel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Markel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AFG | American Financial Group | (0.27) | 9 per month | 1.16 | (0.03) | 2.26 | (2.02) | 7.74 | |
| KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group | (0.87) | 8 per month | 1.59 | 0.01 | 3.98 | (3.33) | 8.82 | |
| RNR | Renaissancere Holdings | 1.77 | 8 per month | 1.02 | 0.12 | 2.58 | (1.68) | 5.84 |
Markel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Markel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Markel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Markel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Markel Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Markel stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Markel, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Markel based on analysis of Markel hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Markel's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Markel's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0019 | 0.001602 | 0.001121 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.21 | 1.34 | 1.19 |
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Try AI Portfolio ProphetCheck out Markel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Markel Stock please use our How to buy in Markel Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Markel. Expected growth trajectory for Markel significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Markel assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.259 | Earnings Share 169.22 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.099 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Markel using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Markel's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Markel's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Markel's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Markel represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Markel's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.