Markel Stock Forward View
| MKL Stock | USD 2,068 29.73 1.46% |
Markel Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Markel's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Markel's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Markel fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength indicator of Markel's share price is approaching 49. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Markel, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 24.335 | EPS Estimate Current Year 104.1175 | EPS Estimate Next Year 111.695 | Wall Street Target Price 2 K |
Using Markel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Markel from the perspective of Markel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Markel using Markel's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Markel using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Markel's stock price.
Markel Short Interest
An investor who is long Markel may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Markel and may potentially protect profits, hedge Markel with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 2 K | Short Percent 0.0158 | Short Ratio 5.25 | Shares Short Prior Month 220.3 K | 50 Day MA 2.1 K |
Markel Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Markel on the next trading day is expected to be 2,113 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 884.65.Markel Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Markel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Markel. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Markel can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Markel. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Markel's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Markel.
Markel Implied Volatility | 0.25 |
Markel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Markel stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Markel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Markel stock will not fluctuate a lot when Markel's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Markel on the next trading day is expected to be 2,113 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 884.65. Markel after-hype prediction price | USD 2068.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Markel to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Markel contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Markel will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0156% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Markel trading at USD 2068.38, that is roughly USD 0.32 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Markel's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Markel options at the current volatility level of 0.25%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Markel Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Markel's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Markel's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Markel stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Markel's open interest, investors have to compare it to Markel's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Markel is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Markel. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Markel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Markel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Markel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Markel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Markel Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Markel's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1998-12-31 | Previous Quarter 3.7 B | Current Value 4 B | Quarterly Volatility 1.4 B |
Markel Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Markel on the next trading day is expected to be 2,113 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.50, mean absolute percentage error of 326.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 884.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Markel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Markel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Markel Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Markel | Markel Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Markel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Markel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Markel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,112 and 2,114, respectively. We have considered Markel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Markel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Markel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.9001 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 14.5025 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0069 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 884.6539 |
Predictive Modules for Markel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Markel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Markel After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Markel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Markel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Markel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Markel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Markel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Markel's historical news coverage. Markel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2,068 and 2,070, respectively. We have considered Markel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Markel is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Markel is based on 3 months time horizon.
Markel Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Markel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Markel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Markel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.78 | 0.40 | 0.02 | 11 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2,068 | 2,069 | 0.02 |
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Markel Hype Timeline
On the 4th of February Markel is traded for 2,068. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.4, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Markel is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 2068.78 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 5.86%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Markel is about 117.17%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2,068. The company reported the last year's revenue of 16.75 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 2.85 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 8.08 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Markel to cross-verify your projections.Markel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Markel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Markel's future price movements. Getting to know how Markel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Markel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CINF | Cincinnati Financial | (1.45) | 11 per month | 0.76 | 0.08 | 1.69 | (1.36) | 4.67 | |
| WRB | W R Berkley | (1.65) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.10 | (2.14) | 9.24 | |
| L | Loews Corp | (0.41) | 10 per month | 0.59 | 0.11 | 1.77 | (1.37) | 3.68 | |
| HBAN | Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | (0.40) | 7 per month | 1.31 | 0.17 | 2.86 | (2.12) | 10.36 | |
| SHG | Shinhan Financial Group | 0.15 | 10 per month | 1.48 | 0.1 | 3.19 | (2.57) | 7.88 | |
| TROW | T Rowe Price | (1.23) | 6 per month | 1.56 | (0.02) | 2.42 | (2.76) | 6.21 | |
| RF | Regions Financial | 0.33 | 10 per month | 0.83 | 0.21 | 3.11 | (1.71) | 6.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for Markel
For every potential investor in Markel, whether a beginner or expert, Markel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Markel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Markel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Markel's price trends.Markel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Markel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Markel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Markel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Markel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Markel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Markel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Markel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Markel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Markel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Markel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Markel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting markel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7492 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4976 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4955 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2476 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Markel
The number of cover stories for Markel depends on current market conditions and Markel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Markel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Markel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Markel Short Properties
Markel's future price predictability will typically decrease when Markel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Markel often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Markel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Markel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Markel to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Markel Stock please use our How to buy in Markel Stock guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Markel. Expected growth trajectory for Markel significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Markel assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | Earnings Share 159.46 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Markel using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Markel's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Markel's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Markel's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Markel represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Markel's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.