Altria Group Stock Price Prediction
| MO Stock | USD 56.81 0.78 1.39% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
66
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.099 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.29 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.1228 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.3312 | Wall Street Target Price 55.22 |
Using Altria hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Altria Group from the perspective of Altria response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Altria Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Altria's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Altria. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Altria can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Altria Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Altria's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Altria.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Altria to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Altria because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Altria after-hype prediction price | USD 56.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Altria |
Altria After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Altria at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Altria or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Altria, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Altria Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Altria's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Altria's historical news coverage. Altria's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 54.75 and 57.31, respectively. We have considered Altria's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Altria is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Altria Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Altria Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Altria is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Altria backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Altria, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.28 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
56.81 | 56.03 | 0.00 |
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Altria Hype Timeline
As of November 22, 2024 Altria Group is listed for 56.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Altria is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Altria is about 296.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 56.75. About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.92. Altria Group last dividend was issued on the 16th of September 2024. The entity had 3:1 split on the 11th of April 1997. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Altria Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Altria Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Altria's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Altria's future price movements. Getting to know how Altria's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Altria may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BTI | British American Tobacco | (0.19) | 10 per month | 1.04 | (0.05) | 1.28 | (1.32) | 4.63 | |
| UVV | Universal | (0.11) | 9 per month | 1.00 | 0 | 2.44 | (1.41) | 5.89 | |
| IMBBY | Imperial Brands PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.74 | 0.09 | 2.36 | (1.43) | 7.84 | |
| VGR | Vector Group | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.29 | 3.38 | (0.96) | 8.71 | |
| PM | Philip Morris International | (1.60) | 10 per month | 1.26 | 0.03 | 1.99 | (1.84) | 15.67 | |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands | (1.59) | 9 per month | 0.59 | 0.29 | 4.76 | (1.47) | 10.20 | |
| JAPAY | Japan Tobacco ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.31 | (1.56) | 5.68 | |
| IMBBF | Imperial Brands PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.55 | 0.02 | 5.01 | (5.02) | 11.56 |
Altria Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Altria price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Altria using various technical indicators. When you analyze Altria charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Altria Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Altria stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Altria Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Altria based on analysis of Altria hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Altria's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Altria's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0737 | 0.08 | 0.0946 | 0.13 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.14 | 3.99 | 3.5 | 3.67 |
Story Coverage note for Altria
The number of cover stories for Altria depends on current market conditions and Altria's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Altria is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Altria's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Altria Short Properties
Altria's future price predictability will typically decrease when Altria's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Altria Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Altria's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Altria's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.7 B |
Check out Altria Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Tobacco space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Altria. If investors know Altria will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Altria listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.099 | Dividend Share 3.96 | Earnings Share 5.92 | Revenue Per Share 11.726 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.013 |
The market value of Altria Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Altria that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Altria's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Altria's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Altria's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Altria's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Altria's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Altria is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Altria's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.