Orchid Island Capital Stock Price Prediction
| ORC Stock | USD 7.87 0.05 0.64% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
57
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.179 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.02) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.33) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.575 | Wall Street Target Price 9.5 |
Using Orchid Island hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Orchid Island Capital from the perspective of Orchid Island response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Orchid Island to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Orchid because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Orchid Island after-hype prediction price | USD 7.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Orchid |
Orchid Island After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Orchid Island at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Orchid Island or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Orchid Island, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Orchid Island Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Orchid Island's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Orchid Island's historical news coverage. Orchid Island's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.66 and 9.08, respectively. We have considered Orchid Island's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Orchid Island is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Orchid Island Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Orchid Island Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Orchid Island is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Orchid Island backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Orchid Island, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.87 | 7.87 | 0.00 |
|
Orchid Island Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of November Orchid Island Capital is traded for 7.87. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Orchid is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Orchid Island is about 4537.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.87. About 31.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.94. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Orchid Island Capital last dividend was issued on the 29th of November 2024. The entity had 1:5 split on the 31st of August 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Orchid Island Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Orchid Island Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Orchid Island's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Orchid Island's future price movements. Getting to know how Orchid Island's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Orchid Island may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AGNC | AGNC Investment Corp | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.49 | (2.10) | 5.49 | |
| TWO | Two Harbors Investments | (0.13) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.42 | (2.21) | 8.41 | |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | 0.07 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.85 | (2.89) | 6.35 | |
| CIM | Chimera Investment | 0.13 | 7 per month | 1.51 | (0.07) | 1.80 | (2.36) | 8.55 | |
| DX | Dynex Capital | (0.35) | 8 per month | 1.02 | (0.04) | 1.54 | (1.52) | 4.76 | |
| EARN | Ellington Residential Mortgage | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.98 | (0.09) | 1.92 | (1.85) | 5.24 | |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT | (0.12) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.47 | (2.02) | 4.86 | |
| BRMK | Broadmark Realty Capital | (0.15) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.02 | (4.08) | 8.68 | |
| NYMT | New York Mortgage | 0.15 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.48 | (3.32) | 7.18 | |
| EFC | Ellington Financial | (0.09) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.02 | (1.26) | 4.21 | |
| ACRE | Ares Commercial Real | 0.17 | 7 per month | 1.68 | 0.01 | 2.88 | (2.67) | 13.22 | |
| CHMI | Cherry Hill Mortgage | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 1.75 | (2.45) | 12.10 |
Orchid Island Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Orchid price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Orchid using various technical indicators. When you analyze Orchid charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Orchid Island Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Orchid Island stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Orchid Island Capital, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Orchid Island based on analysis of Orchid Island hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Orchid Island's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Orchid Island's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.71 | 0.9 | 0.8 | Dividend Yield | 0.17 | 0.24 | 0.21 |
Story Coverage note for Orchid Island
The number of cover stories for Orchid Island depends on current market conditions and Orchid Island's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Orchid Island is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Orchid Island's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Orchid Island Short Properties
Orchid Island's future price predictability will typically decrease when Orchid Island's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Orchid Island Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Orchid Island's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Orchid Island's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 44.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 320.7 M |
Complementary Tools for Orchid Stock analysis
When running Orchid Island's price analysis, check to measure Orchid Island's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Orchid Island is operating at the current time. Most of Orchid Island's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Orchid Island's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Orchid Island's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Orchid Island to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated | |
| Fundamentals Comparison Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities |