Ternium Sa Adr Stock Price Prediction
| TX Stock | USD 28.93 0.07 0.24% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
35
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.14 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.7667 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.455 | Wall Street Target Price 43.0909 |
Using Ternium SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ternium SA ADR from the perspective of Ternium SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ternium SA using Ternium SA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ternium using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ternium SA's stock price.
Ternium SA Short Interest
An investor who is long Ternium SA may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ternium SA and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ternium SA with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 36.1507 | Short Percent 0.0187 | Short Ratio 4.45 | Shares Short Prior Month 767.1 K | 50 Day MA 31.6274 |
Ternium SA ADR Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ternium SA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ternium. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ternium can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ternium SA ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ternium SA's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ternium SA.
Ternium SA Implied Volatility | 0.77 |
Ternium SA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ternium SA ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ternium SA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ternium SA stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ternium SA's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ternium SA to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ternium because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ternium SA after-hype prediction price | USD 28.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ternium contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ternium SA ADR will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0481% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Ternium SA trading at USD 28.93, that is roughly USD 0.0139 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ternium SA's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ternium SA ADR options at the current volatility level of 0.77%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Ternium |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ternium SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ternium SA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ternium SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ternium SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ternium SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ternium SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ternium SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ternium SA's historical news coverage. Ternium SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.16 and 30.66, respectively. We have considered Ternium SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ternium SA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ternium SA ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ternium SA Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ternium SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ternium SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ternium SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.75 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 12 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
28.93 | 28.91 | 0.07 |
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Ternium SA Hype Timeline
As of January 18, 2025 Ternium SA ADR is listed for 28.93. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Ternium is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 28.91. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Ternium SA is about 879.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.98. About 16.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.48. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Ternium SA ADR last dividend was issued on the 18th of November 2024. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Ternium SA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ternium SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ternium SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ternium SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Ternium SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ternium SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| X | United States Steel | (0.37) | 8 per month | 3.29 | 0 | 6.13 | (5.55) | 17.96 | |
| AG | First Majestic Silver | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.23 | (4.79) | 13.92 | |
| AU | AngloGold Ashanti plc | (0.52) | 11 per month | 2.71 | 0 | 5.03 | (4.02) | 14.65 | |
| CE | Celanese | 2.11 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 2.67 | (4.77) | 27.22 | |
| DC | Dakota Gold Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.62 | (5.33) | 15.38 | |
| IE | Ivanhoe Electric | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.61 | (7.51) | 17.27 | |
| MT | ArcelorMittal SA ADR | (0.16) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.18 | (3.01) | 8.24 | |
| NG | NovaGold Resources | 0.24 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.71 | (4.76) | 15.91 | |
| OR | Osisko Gold Ro | 0.49 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.98 | (3.57) | 8.38 |
Ternium SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ternium price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ternium using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ternium charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ternium SA Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ternium SA stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ternium SA ADR, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ternium SA based on analysis of Ternium SA hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ternium SA's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ternium SA's related companies. | 2022 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.089 | 0.0396 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.37 | 0.85 |
Story Coverage note for Ternium SA
The number of cover stories for Ternium SA depends on current market conditions and Ternium SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ternium SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ternium SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ternium SA Short Properties
Ternium SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ternium SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ternium SA ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ternium SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ternium SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 196.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.8 B |
Additional Tools for Ternium Stock Analysis
When running Ternium SA's price analysis, check to measure Ternium SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ternium SA is operating at the current time. Most of Ternium SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ternium SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ternium SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ternium SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.