Provident Financial Services Stock Beneish M Score

PFS Stock  USD 20.85  0.14  0.68%   
This module uses fundamental data of Provident Financial to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Provident Financial M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Check out Provident Financial Piotroski F Score and Provident Financial Altman Z Score analysis.
  
At this time, Provident Financial's Short and Long Term Debt Total is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Short and Long Term Debt is likely to gain to about 801.9 M in 2024, whereas Net Debt is likely to drop slightly above 995.8 M in 2024. At this time, Provident Financial's Net Income Per Share is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Sales General And Administrative To Revenue is likely to gain to 0.37 in 2024, whereas Free Cash Flow Yield is likely to drop 0.07 in 2024.
At this time, it appears that Provident Financial is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Provident Financial's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Provident Financial executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Provident Financial's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.91
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables

0.81

Focus
Asset Quality

1.01

Focus
Expense Coverage

0.78

Focus
Gross Margin Strengs

0.78

Focus
Accruals Factor

0.78

Focus
Depreciation Resistance

0.81

Focus
Net Sales Growth

0.66

Focus
Financial Leverage Condition

1.32

Focus

Provident Financial Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Provident Financial's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Net Receivables31.3 M59 M
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Total Revenue296.6 M451.4 M
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Total Assets8.8 B14.2 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Total Current Assets227.3 M239.2 M
Notably Down
Slightly volatile
Non Current Assets Total2.2 B2.6 B
Fairly Down
Slightly volatile
Property Plant Equipment73.7 M91.8 M
Significantly Down
Slightly volatile
Depreciation And Amortization23.3 M22.2 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Selling General Administrative104.4 M203.8 M
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Total Current Liabilities6.6 BB
Significantly Down
Slightly volatile
Non Current Liabilities Total13.1 B12.5 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Short Term Debt740.4 M1.1 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Long Term DebtB1.5 B
Way Down
Pretty Stable
Operating Income591.8 M563.6 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Cash From Operating Activities122.9 M173.4 M
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Short Term Investments1.8 B1.7 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Long Term InvestmentsB2.1 B
Notably Down
Pretty Stable
Gross Profit Margin0.720.923
Significantly Down
Pretty Stable

Provident Financial Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Provident Financial's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Provident Financial in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Provident Financial's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Provident Financial Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Operating Income

591.78 Million

At this time, Provident Financial's Operating Income is comparatively stable compared to the past year.

Provident Financial Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Provident Financial. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Net Receivables29.0M46.5M42.0M51.9M59.0M31.3M
Total Revenue361.8M385.0M452.8M505.3M451.4M296.6M
Total Assets9.8B12.9B13.8B13.8B14.2B8.8B
Total Current Assets1.2B1.7B2.8B2.0B239.2M227.3M
Net Debt938.4M668.8M(75.4M)1.2B1.3B995.8M
Short Term Debt856.2M886.6M443.0M881.9M1.1B740.4M
Long Term Debt1.1B1.2B637.1M1.3B1.5B1.0B
Operating Income147.1M127.6M227.1M288.7M563.6M591.8M
Investments60.9M(580.7M)(985.3M)(655.3M)(508.3M)(533.7M)

Provident Financial ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Provident Financial's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Provident Financial's managers, analysts, and investors.
Environmental
Governance
Social

About Provident Financial Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Provident Financial Services's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Provident Financial using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Provident Financial Services based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
Explore Investing Ideas  

Additional Tools for Provident Stock Analysis

When running Provident Financial's price analysis, check to measure Provident Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Provident Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Provident Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Provident Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Provident Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Provident Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.