Cerence Stock Market Value
| CRNC Stock | USD 7.20 1.37 23.50% |
| Symbol | Cerence |
Is Systems Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cerence. If investors know Cerence will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cerence listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Cerence is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cerence that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cerence's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cerence's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cerence's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cerence's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cerence's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cerence is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cerence's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Cerence 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Cerence's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Cerence.
| 12/05/2022 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Cerence on December 5, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Cerence or generate 0.0% return on investment in Cerence over 720 days. Cerence is related to or competes with Alkami Technology, ADEIA P, Paycor HCM, Envestnet, Blackbaud, DoubleVerify Holdings, and Braze. Cerence Inc. provides AI powered virtual assistants for the mobilitytransportation market worldwide More
Cerence Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Cerence's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Cerence upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 5.36 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1181 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 83.24 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.87) | |||
| Potential Upside | 10.96 |
Cerence Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Cerence's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Cerence's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Cerence historical prices to predict the future Cerence's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1066 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 1.84 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.48) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.338 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.37 |
Cerence Backtested Returns
Cerence is unstable given 3 months investment horizon. Cerence secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.13, which signifies that the company had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We were able to interpolate thirty different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.94% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Cerence Downside Deviation of 5.36, mean deviation of 7.09, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1066 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. Cerence holds a performance score of 9 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.82, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Cerence's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Cerence is expected to be smaller as well. Use Cerence sortino ratio, semi variance, rate of daily change, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and kurtosis , to analyze future returns on Cerence.
Auto-correlation | 0.04 |
Virtually no predictability
Cerence has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Cerence time series from 5th of December 2022 to 30th of November 2023 and 30th of November 2023 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Cerence price movement. The serial correlation of 0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current Cerence price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.04 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.24 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 43.58 |
Cerence lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Cerence stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Cerence's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Cerence returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Cerence has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Cerence regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Cerence stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Cerence stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Cerence stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Cerence Lagged Returns
When evaluating Cerence's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Cerence stock have on its future price. Cerence autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Cerence autocorrelation shows the relationship between Cerence stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Cerence.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Cerence offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Cerence's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cerence Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cerence Stock:Check out Cerence Correlation, Cerence Volatility and Cerence Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Cerence. For information on how to trade Cerence Stock refer to our How to Trade Cerence Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Cerence technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.