First Guaranty Bancshares Preferred Stock Market Value
| FGBIP Preferred Stock | USD 21.70 0.47 2.12% |
| Symbol | First |
First Guaranty 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Guaranty's preferred stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Guaranty.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Guaranty on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Guaranty Bancshares or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Guaranty over 30 days. First Guaranty is related to or competes with Capital One, Capital One, and Bank of America. First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. operates as the holding company for First Guaranty Bank that provides commercial banking... More
First Guaranty Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Guaranty's preferred stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Guaranty Bancshares upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0297 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.01 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.55) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.63 |
First Guaranty Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Guaranty's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Guaranty's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Guaranty historical prices to predict the future First Guaranty's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1026 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.114 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0299 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4193 |
First Guaranty Bancshares Backtested Returns
Currently, First Guaranty Bancshares is very steady. First Guaranty Bancshares secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.14, which denotes the company had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for First Guaranty Bancshares, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm First Guaranty's Coefficient Of Variation of 779.76, downside deviation of 1.32, and Mean Deviation of 0.9522 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.18%. First Guaranty has a performance score of 10 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.38, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, First Guaranty's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First Guaranty is expected to be smaller as well. First Guaranty Bancshares right now shows a risk of 1.35%. Please confirm First Guaranty Bancshares skewness, and the relationship between the value at risk and day median price , to decide if First Guaranty Bancshares will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.12 |
Insignificant predictability
First Guaranty Bancshares has insignificant predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Guaranty time series from 26th of October 2024 to 10th of November 2024 and 10th of November 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Guaranty Bancshares price movement. The serial correlation of 0.12 indicates that less than 12.0% of current First Guaranty price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.12 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.33 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.03 |
First Guaranty Bancshares lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Guaranty preferred stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Guaranty's preferred stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Guaranty returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Guaranty has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the preferred stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Guaranty regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Guaranty preferred stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Guaranty preferred stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Guaranty preferred stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Guaranty Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Guaranty's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Guaranty preferred stock have on its future price. First Guaranty autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Guaranty autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Guaranty preferred stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Guaranty Bancshares.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with First Guaranty
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if First Guaranty position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in First Guaranty will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against First Preferred Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to First Guaranty could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace First Guaranty when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back First Guaranty - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling First Guaranty Bancshares to buy it.
The correlation of First Guaranty is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as First Guaranty moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if First Guaranty Bancshares moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for First Guaranty can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for First Preferred Stock Analysis
When running First Guaranty's price analysis, check to measure First Guaranty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Guaranty is operating at the current time. Most of First Guaranty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Guaranty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Guaranty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Guaranty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.