Tractor Supply (Germany) Market Value
| TR4 Stock | EUR 51.40 0.37 0.73% |
| Symbol | Tractor |
Tractor Supply 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Tractor Supply's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Tractor Supply.
| 06/26/2024 |
| 12/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Tractor Supply on June 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Tractor Supply or generate 0.0% return on investment in Tractor Supply over 180 days. Tractor Supply is related to or competes with MercadoLibre, OReilly Automotive, AutoZone, Ulta Beauty, EBay, and Genuine Parts. Tractor Supply Company operates rural lifestyle retail stores in the United States More
Tractor Supply Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Tractor Supply's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Tractor Supply upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0408 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.63 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.52) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.19 |
Tractor Supply Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Tractor Supply's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Tractor Supply's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Tractor Supply historical prices to predict the future Tractor Supply's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0525 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0786 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0441 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0445 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1504 |
Tractor Supply Backtested Returns
At this point, Tractor Supply is very steady. Tractor Supply owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0442, which indicates the firm had a 0.0442% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Tractor Supply, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Tractor Supply's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0525, semi deviation of 1.47, and Coefficient Of Variation of 1680.71 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0763%. Tractor Supply has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 0.61, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Tractor Supply's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Tractor Supply is expected to be smaller as well. Tractor Supply right now has a risk of 1.72%. Please validate Tractor Supply semi deviation, coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, as well as the relationship between the downside deviation and standard deviation , to decide if Tractor Supply will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.32 |
Below average predictability
Tractor Supply has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Tractor Supply time series from 26th of June 2024 to 24th of September 2024 and 24th of September 2024 to 23rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Tractor Supply price movement. The serial correlation of 0.32 indicates that nearly 32.0% of current Tractor Supply price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.32 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.01 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.38 |
Tractor Supply lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Tractor Supply stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Tractor Supply's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Tractor Supply returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Tractor Supply has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Tractor Supply regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Tractor Supply stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Tractor Supply stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Tractor Supply stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Tractor Supply Lagged Returns
When evaluating Tractor Supply's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Tractor Supply stock have on its future price. Tractor Supply autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Tractor Supply autocorrelation shows the relationship between Tractor Supply stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Tractor Supply.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Tractor Stock
When determining whether Tractor Supply offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Tractor Supply's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Tractor Supply Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Tractor Supply Stock:Check out Tractor Supply Correlation, Tractor Supply Volatility and Tractor Supply Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Tractor Supply. For more detail on how to invest in Tractor Stock please use our How to Invest in Tractor Supply guide.You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Tractor Supply technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.