Applied Opt Stock Performance

AAOI Stock  USD 44.46  0.47  1.07%   
Applied Opt holds a performance score of 14 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 2.74, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Applied Opt will likely underperform. Use Applied Opt sortino ratio, skewness, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to analyze future returns on Applied Opt.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Applied Opt are ranked lower than 14 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite fairly unfluctuating basic indicators, Applied Opt demonstrated solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
1.07
Five Day Return
10.73
Year To Date Return
12.27
Ten Year Return
178.22
All Time Return
346.39
1
Disposition of 600 shares by Black Richard B of Applied Opt subject to Rule 16b-3
11/26/2025
2
Marex Group plc Takes 1.42 Million Position in Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. AAOI
12/15/2025
3
Disposition of 3000 shares by Stefan Murry of Applied Opt at 33.7473 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/12/2026
4
Disposition of 934 shares by Stefan Murry of Applied Opt at 35.0005 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/13/2026
5
Applied Optoelectronics Hits Nearly 8-Year High on Upbeat Outlook, Buy Reco
01/29/2026
6
Applied Optoelectronics Falls 12.5 percent After 8-Year High
01/30/2026
7
IREN Limited A Bull Case Theory
02/04/2026
8
How Investors Are Reacting To Applied Optoelectronics First Major 800G Hyperscale Transceiver Order
02/06/2026
9
Acquisition by Chang Hung-lun of 25799 shares of Applied Opt subject to Rule 16b-3
02/09/2026
10
Disposition of 17467 shares by David Kuo of Applied Opt at 50.1661 subject to Rule 16b-3
02/11/2026
11
Vertiv Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Net Sales Up YY, Shares Fall
02/12/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow55.1 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-50.7 M

Applied Opt Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  2,163  in Applied Opt on November 16, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  2,283  from holding Applied Opt or generate 105.55% return on investment over 90 days. Applied Opt is currently generating 1.4911% in daily expected returns and assumes 7.9643% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 71% of stocks are less volatile than Applied, and 70% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Applied Opt is expected to generate 10.34 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 10.34 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.19 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.13 per unit of risk.

Applied Opt Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Applied Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 44.46 90 days 44.46 
about 8.58
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Applied Opt to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 8.58 (This Applied Opt probability density function shows the probability of Applied Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.74 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Applied Opt will likely underperform. Additionally Applied Opt has an alpha of 0.9764, implying that it can generate a 0.98 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Applied Opt Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Applied Opt

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Opt. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
40.2848.2456.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
30.4338.3946.35
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
33.3136.6040.63
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.120.210.25
Details

Applied Opt Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Applied Opt is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Applied Opt's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Applied Opt, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Applied Opt within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.98
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.74
σ
Overall volatility
7.98
Ir
Information ratio 0.14

Applied Opt Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Applied Opt for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Applied Opt can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Applied Opt is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Applied Opt appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 249.37 M. Net Loss for the year was (186.73 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 123.7 M.
Applied Opt currently holds about 26.27 M in cash with (69.53 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.92.
Roughly 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Vertiv Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Net Sales Up YY, Shares Fall

Applied Opt Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Applied Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Applied Opt's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied Opt's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding41.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments67.4 M

Applied Opt Fundamentals Growth

Applied Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Applied Opt, and Applied Opt fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Applied Stock performance.

About Applied Opt Performance

By evaluating Applied Opt's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Applied Opt's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Applied Opt has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Applied Opt has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 154.36  126.95 
Return On Tangible Assets(0.40)(0.38)
Return On Capital Employed(0.22)(0.21)
Return On Assets(0.39)(0.37)
Return On Equity(0.94)(0.89)

Things to note about Applied Opt performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Applied Opt for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Applied Opt help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Applied Opt is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Applied Opt appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 249.37 M. Net Loss for the year was (186.73 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 123.7 M.
Applied Opt currently holds about 26.27 M in cash with (69.53 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.92.
Roughly 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Vertiv Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Net Sales Up YY, Shares Fall
Evaluating Applied Opt's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Applied Opt's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Applied Opt's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Applied Opt's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Applied Opt's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Applied Opt's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Applied Opt's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Applied Opt's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Applied Opt's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Applied Opt's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Applied Opt's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Applied Stock analysis

When running Applied Opt's price analysis, check to measure Applied Opt's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applied Opt is operating at the current time. Most of Applied Opt's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applied Opt's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applied Opt's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applied Opt to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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