Applied Opt Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AAOI Stock | USD 45.23 7.84 20.97% |
Applied Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Applied Opt's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 29th of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Applied Opt's share price is at 59. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Applied Opt, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.032 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.38) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.846 | Wall Street Target Price 36.6 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.09) |
Using Applied Opt hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Applied Opt from the perspective of Applied Opt response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Applied Opt using Applied Opt's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Applied using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Applied Opt's stock price.
Applied Opt Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Applied Opt's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Applied. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Applied Opt stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 25.3908 | Short Percent 0.1823 | Short Ratio 2.52 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.2 M | 50 Day MA 31.3321 |
Applied Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied Opt on the next trading day is expected to be 46.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 119.00.Applied Opt Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Applied Opt's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Applied. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Applied can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Applied Opt. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Applied Opt's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Applied Opt.
Applied Opt Implied Volatility | 1.16 |
Applied Opt's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Applied Opt stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Applied Opt's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Applied Opt stock will not fluctuate a lot when Applied Opt's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied Opt on the next trading day is expected to be 46.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 119.00. Applied Opt after-hype prediction price | USD 47.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Opt to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Applied contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Applied Opt will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0725% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Applied Opt trading at USD 45.23, that is roughly USD 0.0328 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Applied Opt's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Applied Opt options at the current volatility level of 1.16%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Applied Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Applied Opt's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Applied Opt's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Applied Opt stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Applied Opt's open interest, investors have to compare it to Applied Opt's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Applied Opt is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Applied. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Applied Opt Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Applied price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Applied using various technical indicators. When you analyze Applied charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Applied Opt Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Applied Opt's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-12-31 | Previous Quarter 64.7 M | Current Value 137 M | Quarterly Volatility 25.2 M |
Applied Opt Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied Opt on the next trading day is expected to be 46.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95, mean absolute percentage error of 6.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 119.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied Opt's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Applied Opt Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Applied Opt | Applied Opt Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Applied Opt Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Applied Opt's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Applied Opt's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.22 and 54.76, respectively. We have considered Applied Opt's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied Opt stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied Opt stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9236 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9508 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0613 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 118.9995 |
Predictive Modules for Applied Opt
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Opt. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Applied Opt After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Applied Opt at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Applied Opt or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Applied Opt, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Applied Opt Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Applied Opt's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Applied Opt's historical news coverage. Applied Opt's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 39.50 and 55.04, respectively. We have considered Applied Opt's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Applied Opt is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Applied Opt is based on 3 months time horizon.
Applied Opt Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Applied Opt is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Applied Opt backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Applied Opt, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.68 | 7.77 | 2.04 | 0.24 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
45.23 | 47.27 | 4.51 |
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Applied Opt Hype Timeline
Applied Opt is presently traded for 45.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.24. Applied is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 47.27 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 4.51%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.68%. The volatility of related hype on Applied Opt is about 2239.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 45.47. Applied Opt currently holds about 26.27 M in cash with (69.53 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.92. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Opt to cross-verify your projections.Applied Opt Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Applied Opt's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Applied Opt's future price movements. Getting to know how Applied Opt's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Applied Opt may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DQ | Daqo New Energy | (0.03) | 9 per month | 3.60 | 0.01 | 8.89 | (6.41) | 25.47 | |
| KLIC | Kulicke and Soffa | 1.48 | 11 per month | 1.60 | 0.20 | 4.84 | (3.29) | 13.91 | |
| VSH | Vishay Intertechnology | (0.21) | 10 per month | 2.40 | 0.06 | 6.56 | (4.05) | 10.69 | |
| MXL | MaxLinear | (0.25) | 8 per month | 3.71 | 0.03 | 6.20 | (6.25) | 15.00 | |
| VECO | Veeco Instruments | 0.13 | 13 per month | 2.27 | 0.03 | 4.73 | (4.03) | 13.14 | |
| PGY | Pagaya Technologies | (0.72) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 6.60 | (6.84) | 22.52 | |
| POWI | Power Integrations | 1.23 | 11 per month | 2.55 | 0.03 | 4.95 | (3.75) | 10.65 | |
| LASR | nLIGHT Inc | (0.02) | 7 per month | 3.47 | 0.14 | 6.51 | (5.62) | 23.42 | |
| UCTT | Ultra Clean Holdings | 1.92 | 6 per month | 3.32 | 0.16 | 7.86 | (6.23) | 15.82 | |
| SONO | Sonos Inc | (0.06) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.76 | (3.99) | 11.06 |
Other Forecasting Options for Applied Opt
For every potential investor in Applied, whether a beginner or expert, Applied Opt's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Applied Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Applied. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Applied Opt's price trends.Applied Opt Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Applied Opt stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Applied Opt could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Applied Opt by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Applied Opt Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applied Opt stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applied Opt shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applied Opt stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applied Opt entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Applied Opt Risk Indicators
The analysis of Applied Opt's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Applied Opt's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting applied stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.71 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.63 | |||
| Variance | 58.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 42.94 | |||
| Semi Variance | 37.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Applied Opt
The number of cover stories for Applied Opt depends on current market conditions and Applied Opt's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Applied Opt is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Applied Opt's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Applied Opt Short Properties
Applied Opt's future price predictability will typically decrease when Applied Opt's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Applied Opt often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Applied Opt's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied Opt's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 67.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Opt to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Applied Stock please use our How to Invest in Applied Opt guide.You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Is there potential for Communications Equipment market expansion? Will Applied introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Applied Opt. If investors know Applied will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Applied Opt listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (3.46) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.821 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Applied Opt using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Applied Opt's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Applied Opt's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Applied Opt's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Applied Opt represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Applied Opt's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.