Apollo Commercial Real Stock Performance

ARI Stock  USD 10.95  0.27  2.53%   
Apollo Commercial has a performance score of 11 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.5, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Apollo Commercial's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Apollo Commercial is expected to be smaller as well. Apollo Commercial Real right now shows a risk of 1.28%. Please confirm Apollo Commercial Real sortino ratio, skewness, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to decide if Apollo Commercial Real will be following its price patterns.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Apollo Commercial Real are ranked lower than 11 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite fairly weak basic indicators, Apollo Commercial may actually be approaching a critical reversion point that can send shares even higher in March 2026. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
5.59
Five Day Return
6.06
Year To Date Return
8.32
Ten Year Return
(32.83)
All Time Return
(42.27)
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0988
Payout Ratio
0.0667
Forward Dividend Rate
1
Dividend Date
2026-01-15
Ex Dividend Date
2025-12-31
1
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Revisiting Valuation After Return to Profitability
11/06/2025
2
Seeking Up to 10 percent Dividend Yield Analysts Suggest 2 Dividend Stocks Worth Buying
11/10/2025
3
Acquisition by Romando Brenna Haysom of 9140 shares of Apollo Commercial subject to Rule 16b-3
11/14/2025
4
Disposition of 40000 shares by Stuart Rothstein of Apollo Commercial at 11.4548 subject to Rule 16b-3
11/24/2025
5
Geode Capital Management LLC Cuts Holdings in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance ARI
11/28/2025
6
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shareholders have earned a 7.4 percent CAGR over the last three years
12/11/2025
7
Disposition of 52072 shares by Stuart Rothstein of Apollo Commercial at 10.1616 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/15/2025
8
Stuart Rothstein Sells 52,072 Shares of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Stock
12/18/2025
9
Acquisition by Stuart Rothstein of 109452 shares of Apollo Commercial subject to Rule 16b-3
12/30/2025
10
How ARIs Shift From Troubled Loans to New Originations Could Reshape Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Investors
01/05/2026
 
Apollo Commercial dividend paid on 15th of January 2026
01/15/2026
11
Apollo to sell 9B commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene
01/28/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow225.4 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities577.2 M

Apollo Commercial Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  954.00  in Apollo Commercial Real on October 31, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  114.00  from holding Apollo Commercial Real or generate 11.95% return on investment over 90 days. Apollo Commercial Real is generating 0.1932% of daily returns assuming volatility of 1.2822% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 11% of stocks are less volatile than Apollo, and above 97% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Apollo Commercial is expected to generate 1.7 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 1.7 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.15 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of risk.

Apollo Commercial Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Apollo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 10.95 90 days 10.95 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Apollo Commercial to move above the current price in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Apollo Commercial Real probability density function shows the probability of Apollo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Apollo Commercial has a beta of 0.5. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Apollo Commercial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Apollo Commercial Real will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Apollo Commercial Real has an alpha of 0.067, implying that it can generate a 0.067 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Apollo Commercial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Apollo Commercial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Apollo Commercial Real. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.3810.6611.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.5310.8112.09
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
9.3210.6011.88
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
10.2411.2512.49
Details

Apollo Commercial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Apollo Commercial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Apollo Commercial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Apollo Commercial Real, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Apollo Commercial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.07
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.50
σ
Overall volatility
0.21
Ir
Information ratio 0.03

Apollo Commercial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Apollo Commercial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Apollo Commercial Real can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company reported the last year's revenue of 701.53 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (122.89 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 187.82 M.
About 69.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of January 2026 Apollo Commercial paid $ 0.25 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Apollo to sell 9B commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene

Apollo Commercial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Apollo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Apollo Commercial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Apollo Commercial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding139.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments317.4 M

Apollo Commercial Fundamentals Growth

Apollo Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Apollo Commercial, and Apollo Commercial fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Apollo Stock performance.

About Apollo Commercial Performance

By evaluating Apollo Commercial's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Apollo Commercial's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Apollo Commercial has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Apollo Commercial has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand-1 K-980
Return On Tangible Assets(0.02)(0.02)
Return On Capital Employed 0.04  0.04 
Return On Assets(0.02)(0.02)
Return On Equity(0.07)(0.07)

Things to note about Apollo Commercial Real performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Apollo Commercial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Apollo Commercial Real help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company reported the last year's revenue of 701.53 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (122.89 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 187.82 M.
About 69.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of January 2026 Apollo Commercial paid $ 0.25 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Apollo to sell 9B commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene
Evaluating Apollo Commercial's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Apollo Commercial's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Apollo Commercial's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Apollo Commercial's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Apollo Commercial's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Apollo Commercial's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Apollo Commercial's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Apollo Commercial's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Apollo Commercial's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Apollo Commercial's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Apollo Commercial's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Apollo Stock analysis

When running Apollo Commercial's price analysis, check to measure Apollo Commercial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Apollo Commercial is operating at the current time. Most of Apollo Commercial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Apollo Commercial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Apollo Commercial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Apollo Commercial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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