MBIA Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MBI Stock | USD 6.40 0.11 1.69% |
MBIA Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MBIA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 27th of January 2026, the relative strength indicator of MBIA's share price is approaching 41. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling MBIA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.01) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.565 | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.50) | Wall Street Target Price 7.75 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.03) |
Using MBIA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MBIA Inc from the perspective of MBIA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MBIA using MBIA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MBIA using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MBIA's stock price.
MBIA Implied Volatility | 0.9 |
MBIA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MBIA Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MBIA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MBIA stock will not fluctuate a lot when MBIA's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MBIA Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 6.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.16. MBIA after-hype prediction price | USD 6.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MBIA to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MBIA contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MBIA Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0563% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With MBIA trading at USD 6.4, that is roughly USD 0.0036 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MBIA's daily price movement you should consider acquiring MBIA Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 MBIA Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast MBIA's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in MBIA's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for MBIA stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current MBIA's open interest, investors have to compare it to MBIA's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of MBIA is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in MBIA. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
MBIA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MBIA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MBIA using various technical indicators. When you analyze MBIA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MBIA Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the MBIA's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1994-06-30 | Previous Quarter 167 M | Current Value 69 M | Quarterly Volatility 464.1 M |
MBIA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of MBIA Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 6.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MBIA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MBIA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MBIA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MBIA | MBIA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MBIA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MBIA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MBIA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.37 and 9.04, respectively. We have considered MBIA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MBIA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MBIA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.3825 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1316 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0182 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.1578 |
Predictive Modules for MBIA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MBIA Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MBIA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MBIA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MBIA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MBIA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MBIA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MBIA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MBIA's historical news coverage. MBIA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.58 and 9.22, respectively. We have considered MBIA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MBIA is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MBIA Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
MBIA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MBIA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MBIA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MBIA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 2.84 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 3 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.40 | 6.40 | 0.00 |
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MBIA Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January MBIA Inc is traded for 6.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. MBIA is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on MBIA is about 1412.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.40. About 49.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 3.59. MBIA Inc last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2023. The entity had 3:2 split on the 23rd of April 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MBIA to cross-verify your projections.MBIA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MBIA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MBIA's future price movements. Getting to know how MBIA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MBIA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JRVR | James River Group | (0.03) | 8 per month | 2.15 | 0.10 | 4.88 | (4.33) | 21.85 | |
| MSBI | Midland States Bancorp | (0.33) | 11 per month | 1.83 | 0.18 | 6.49 | (1.83) | 14.42 | |
| AMBC | AMBC Old | (1.02) | 3 per month | 3.57 | 0.02 | 3.57 | (4.04) | 20.03 | |
| SLQT | Selectquote | (0.11) | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.97 | (6.08) | 33.90 | |
| RWAY | Runway Growth Finance | (0.11) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.80 | (2.36) | 6.84 | |
| SPMC | Sound Point Meridian | (0.64) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.77 | (2.68) | 9.88 | |
| ATLC | Atlanticus Holdings | 0.60 | 9 per month | 3.39 | (0.01) | 4.77 | (5.57) | 14.61 | |
| USCB | US Century Bank | (0.01) | 8 per month | 1.50 | 0.06 | 3.59 | (2.22) | 11.45 | |
| BWFG | Bankwell Financial Group | 0.01 | 6 per month | 1.51 | 0.07 | 2.65 | (2.04) | 8.30 | |
| MVBF | MVB Financial Corp | (0.37) | 6 per month | 1.32 | 0.05 | 3.46 | (2.69) | 8.59 |
Other Forecasting Options for MBIA
For every potential investor in MBIA, whether a beginner or expert, MBIA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MBIA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MBIA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MBIA's price trends.MBIA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MBIA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MBIA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MBIA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MBIA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MBIA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MBIA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MBIA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MBIA Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 14800.72 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.42) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.49 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.46 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.14) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.25 |
MBIA Risk Indicators
The analysis of MBIA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MBIA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mbia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Variance | 7.4 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MBIA
The number of cover stories for MBIA depends on current market conditions and MBIA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MBIA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MBIA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MBIA Short Properties
MBIA's future price predictability will typically decrease when MBIA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MBIA Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MBIA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MBIA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.5 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MBIA to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MBIA. If investors know MBIA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MBIA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of MBIA Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MBIA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MBIA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MBIA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MBIA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MBIA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MBIA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MBIA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MBIA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.