Origin Materials Stock Performance

ORGN Stock  USD 0.15  0.01  6.25%   
The company holds a Beta of 2.6, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Origin Materials will likely underperform. At this point, Origin Materials has a negative expected return of -1.69%. Please make sure to check Origin Materials' value at risk, as well as the relationship between the daily balance of power and price action indicator , to decide if Origin Materials performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Origin Materials has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of unfluctuating performance in the last few months, the Stock's technical and fundamental indicators remain very healthy which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The recent disarray may also be a sign of long period up-swing for the firm investors. ...more
Dividend Date
2020-02-25
1
Acquisition by Hickox John of 20803 shares of Origin Materials subject to Rule 16b-3
11/28/2025
2
Origin Materials Amends Bylaws to Alter Quorum Rules - TipRanks
12/11/2025
3
Disposition of 18200 shares by Joshua Lee of Origin Materials at 0.3611 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/16/2025
4
Will Origin Materials Inc. Equity Warrant stock deliver strong dividend growth - July 2025 PostEarnings Free Fast Gain Swing Trade Alerts -
12/18/2025
5
Origin Materials Stock Extends Decline Amid Insider Selling - AD HOC NEWS
12/22/2025
6
Disposition of 29000 shares by Joshua Lee of Origin Materials at 0.2279 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/24/2025
7
Disposition of 40000 shares by Matthew Plavan of Origin Materials at 0.2096 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/26/2025
8
Disposition of 50000 shares by John Bissell of Origin Materials at 0.2038 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/29/2025
9
Acquisition by Tripeny R Tony of 25815 shares of Origin Materials at 0.4842 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/31/2025
10
Origin Materials expands convertible note financing agreement - MSN
01/05/2026
11
Top 2 Materials Stocks That Are Set To Fly This Quarter
01/09/2026
12
Acquisition by Joshua Lee of 75000 shares of Origin Materials subject to Rule 16b-3
02/04/2026
13
Origin focuses on beverage caps, slashes costs to reach 2027 breakeven - Stock Titan
02/12/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow75.5 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities28.6 M

Origin Materials Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  46.00  in Origin Materials on November 19, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (31.00) from holding Origin Materials or give up 67.39% of portfolio value over 90 days. Origin Materials is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 5.6942% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 51% of stocks are less volatile than Origin, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Origin Materials is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 7.48 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.3 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.16 per unit of volatility.

Origin Materials Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Origin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 0.15 90 days 0.15 
about 89.08
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Origin Materials to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 89.08 (This Origin Materials probability density function shows the probability of Origin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.6 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Origin Materials will likely underperform. Additionally Origin Materials has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Origin Materials Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Origin Materials

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.125.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.010.245.93
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.08-0.08-0.08
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Origin Materials. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Origin Materials' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Origin Materials' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Origin Materials.

Origin Materials Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Origin Materials is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Origin Materials' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Origin Materials, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Origin Materials within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-1.99
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.60
σ
Overall volatility
0.13
Ir
Information ratio -0.35

Origin Materials Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Origin Materials for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Origin Materials can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Origin Materials generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Origin Materials has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Origin Materials has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 31.28 M. Net Loss for the year was (83.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 464 K.
Origin Materials currently holds about 406.14 M in cash with (50.83 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.95, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Origin Materials has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: Origin focuses on beverage caps, slashes costs to reach 2027 breakeven - Stock Titan

Origin Materials Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Origin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Origin Materials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Origin Materials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding143.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments102.9 M

Origin Materials Fundamentals Growth

Origin Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Origin Materials, and Origin Materials fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Origin Stock performance.

About Origin Materials Performance

By examining Origin Materials' fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into Origin Materials' financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that Origin Materials is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 11.78  13.40 
Return On Tangible Assets(0.20)(0.19)
Return On Capital Employed(0.27)(0.25)
Return On Assets(0.20)(0.19)
Return On Equity(0.22)(0.23)

Things to note about Origin Materials performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Origin Materials for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Origin Materials help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Origin Materials generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Origin Materials has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Origin Materials has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 31.28 M. Net Loss for the year was (83.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 464 K.
Origin Materials currently holds about 406.14 M in cash with (50.83 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.95, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Origin Materials has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: Origin focuses on beverage caps, slashes costs to reach 2027 breakeven - Stock Titan
Evaluating Origin Materials' performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Origin Materials' stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Origin Materials' financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Origin Materials' stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Origin Materials' industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Origin Materials' management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Origin Materials' management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Origin Materials' stock. These opinions can provide insight into Origin Materials' potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Origin Materials' stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Origin Materials' stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.
When determining whether Origin Materials offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Origin Materials' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Origin Materials Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Origin Materials Stock:
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Origin Materials. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census.
To learn how to invest in Origin Stock, please use our How to Invest in Origin Materials guide.
You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Will Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) sector continue expanding? Could Origin diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Materials. Anticipated expansion of Origin directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Origin Materials data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.667
Earnings Share
(0.47)
Revenue Per Share
0.171
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.43)
Return On Assets
(0.11)
Investors evaluate Origin Materials using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Origin Materials' intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Origin Materials' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Origin Materials' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Origin Materials should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Origin Materials' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.