Origin Materials Stock Performance
| ORGN Stock | USD 0.20 0.01 4.76% |
The company holds a Beta of 2.85, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Origin Materials will likely underperform. At this point, Origin Materials has a negative expected return of -1.71%. Please make sure to check Origin Materials' standard deviation, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the Treynor Ratio and day median price , to decide if Origin Materials performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weakest
Weak | Strong |
Over the last 90 days Origin Materials has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of unfluctuating performance in the last few months, the Stock's technical and fundamental indicators remain very healthy which may send shares a bit higher in February 2026. The recent disarray may also be a sign of long period up-swing for the firm investors. ...more
Dividend Date 2020-02-25 |
1 | Disposition of 200000 shares by John Bissell of Origin Materials subject to Rule 16b-3 | 11/18/2025 |
2 | West Sacs Origin Materials to sell Louisiana land that was to be site of 1.6 billion factory - The Business Journals | 11/25/2025 |
3 | Acquisition by Hickox John of 20803 shares of Origin Materials subject to Rule 16b-3 | 11/28/2025 |
4 | Disposition of 18200 shares by Joshua Lee of Origin Materials at 0.3611 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 12/16/2025 |
5 | Disposition of 45000 shares by John Bissell of Origin Materials at 0.2684 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 12/19/2025 |
6 | Disposition of 29000 shares by Joshua Lee of Origin Materials at 0.2279 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 12/24/2025 |
7 | Disposition of 40000 shares by Matthew Plavan of Origin Materials at 0.2096 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 12/26/2025 |
8 | Disposition of 50000 shares by John Bissell of Origin Materials at 0.2038 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 12/29/2025 |
9 | Acquisition by Tripeny R Tony of 25815 shares of Origin Materials at 0.4842 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 12/31/2025 |
10 | Origin Materials Enters 100M Securities Purchase Agreement - MSN | 01/07/2026 |
11 | Origin Materials CFO sells 2.4k in shares - Investing.com | 01/20/2026 |
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 75.5 M | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | 28.6 M |
Origin Materials Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 63.00 in Origin Materials on October 29, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (43.00) from holding Origin Materials or give up 68.25% of portfolio value over 90 days. Origin Materials is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 5.4916% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 49% of stocks are less volatile than Origin, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Origin Materials Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of Origin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 0.20 | 90 days | 0.20 | about 89.44 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Origin Materials to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 89.44 (This Origin Materials probability density function shows the probability of Origin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.85 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Origin Materials will likely underperform. Additionally Origin Materials has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Origin Materials Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Origin Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Origin Materials Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Origin Materials is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Origin Materials' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Origin Materials, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Origin Materials within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -1.91 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.85 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.31 |
Origin Materials Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Origin Materials for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Origin Materials can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Origin Materials generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Origin Materials has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Origin Materials has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 31.28 M. Net Loss for the year was (83.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 464 K. | |
| Origin Materials currently holds about 406.14 M in cash with (50.83 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.95, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Origin Materials CFO sells 2.4k in shares - Investing.com |
Origin Materials Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Origin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Origin Materials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Origin Materials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 143.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 102.9 M |
Origin Materials Fundamentals Growth
Origin Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Origin Materials, and Origin Materials fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Origin Stock performance.
| Return On Equity | -0.21 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.11 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (2.75) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | (3.59) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | (17.2 M) | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 155.22 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 10.24 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 0.11 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 1.25 X | ||||
| Revenue | 31.28 M | ||||
| Gross Profit | 464 K | ||||
| EBITDA | (71.94 M) | ||||
| Net Income | (83.7 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 406.14 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 2.95 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 9.68 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.04 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 43.25 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 1.96 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | (50.83 M) | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (0.47) X | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 31.46 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 378.03 M | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (38.13 M) | ||||
| Working Capital | 126.62 M | ||||
About Origin Materials Performance
By examining Origin Materials' fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into Origin Materials' financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that Origin Materials is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Days Of Inventory On Hand | 11.78 | 13.40 | |
| Return On Tangible Assets | (0.20) | (0.19) | |
| Return On Capital Employed | (0.27) | (0.25) | |
| Return On Assets | (0.20) | (0.19) | |
| Return On Equity | (0.22) | (0.23) |
Things to note about Origin Materials performance evaluation
Checking the ongoing alerts about Origin Materials for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Origin Materials help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Origin Materials generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Origin Materials has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Origin Materials has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 31.28 M. Net Loss for the year was (83.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 464 K. | |
| Origin Materials currently holds about 406.14 M in cash with (50.83 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.95, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Origin Materials CFO sells 2.4k in shares - Investing.com |
- Analyzing Origin Materials' financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
- Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Origin Materials' stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
- Examining Origin Materials' industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
- Evaluating Origin Materials' management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Origin Materials' management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
- Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Origin Materials' stock. These opinions can provide insight into Origin Materials' potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Origin Materials. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census. To learn how to invest in Origin Stock, please use our How to Invest in Origin Materials guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Materials. If investors know Origin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Origin Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.667 | Earnings Share (0.47) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.43) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Origin Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Origin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Origin Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Origin Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Origin Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Origin Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Origin Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Origin Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Origin Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.