Origin Materials Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ORGN Stock | USD 0.24 0.03 14.29% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Origin Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 0.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.42. Origin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Origin Materials' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Origin Materials' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Origin Materials fundamentals over time.
As of today the rsi of Origin Materials' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.667 | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.31) | Wall Street Target Price 0.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.11) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.43) |
Using Origin Materials hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Origin Materials from the perspective of Origin Materials response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Origin Materials using Origin Materials' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Origin using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Origin Materials' stock price.
Origin Materials Implied Volatility | 1.68 |
Origin Materials' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Origin Materials stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Origin Materials' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Origin Materials stock will not fluctuate a lot when Origin Materials' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Origin Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 0.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.42. Origin Materials after-hype prediction price | USD 0.22 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Materials to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 Origin Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Origin Materials' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Origin Materials' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Origin Materials stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Origin Materials' open interest, investors have to compare it to Origin Materials' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Origin Materials is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Origin. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Origin Materials Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Origin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Origin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Origin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Origin Materials Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Origin Materials' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2007-03-31 | Previous Quarter 35.3 M | Current Value 34.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 88.1 M |
Origin Materials Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Origin Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 0.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0008, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Origin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Origin Materials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Origin Materials Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Origin Materials | Origin Materials Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Origin Materials Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Origin Materials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Origin Materials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 6.78, respectively. We have considered Origin Materials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Origin Materials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Origin Materials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.0371 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0233 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0508 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.4214 |
Predictive Modules for Origin Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Origin Materials
For every potential investor in Origin, whether a beginner or expert, Origin Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Origin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Origin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Origin Materials' price trends.Origin Materials Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Origin Materials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Origin Materials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Origin Materials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Origin Materials Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Origin Materials' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Origin Materials' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Origin Materials Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Origin Materials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Origin Materials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Origin Materials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Origin Materials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 521719.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.75 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.14 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.23 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.23 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.025 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.03 |
Origin Materials Risk Indicators
The analysis of Origin Materials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Origin Materials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting origin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.05 | |||
| Variance | 36.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Origin Materials
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Origin Materials position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Origin Materials will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Origin Stock
Moving against Origin Stock
| 0.88 | IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | MITT | AG Mortgage Investment | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | BMYMP | Bristol Myers Squibb | PairCorr |
| 0.81 | AGNC | AGNC Investment Corp Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.8 | FCOB | 1st Colonial Bancorp | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Origin Materials could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Origin Materials when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Origin Materials - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Origin Materials to buy it.
The correlation of Origin Materials is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Origin Materials moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Origin Materials moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Origin Materials can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Materials to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Origin Stock, please use our How to Invest in Origin Materials guide.You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Materials. If investors know Origin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Origin Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.667 | Earnings Share (0.47) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.43) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Origin Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Origin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Origin Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Origin Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Origin Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Origin Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Origin Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Origin Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Origin Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.