Alaska Air Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ALK Stock | USD 50.87 2.01 4.11% |
Alaska Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Alaska Air's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Alaska Air's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alaska Air fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Alaska Air's share price is at 55. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Alaska Air, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.68) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.70) | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.4533 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.4729 | Wall Street Target Price 70.8667 |
Using Alaska Air hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alaska Air Group from the perspective of Alaska Air response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alaska Air using Alaska Air's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alaska using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alaska Air's stock price.
Alaska Air Short Interest
An investor who is long Alaska Air may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Alaska Air and may potentially protect profits, hedge Alaska Air with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 50.1921 | Short Percent 0.0866 | Short Ratio 2.32 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.8 M | 50 Day MA 47.46 |
Alaska Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alaska Air Group on the next trading day is expected to be 54.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.51.Alaska Air Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alaska Air's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alaska. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alaska can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alaska Air Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alaska Air's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alaska Air.
Alaska Air Implied Volatility | 0.5 |
Alaska Air's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alaska Air Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alaska Air's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alaska Air stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alaska Air's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alaska Air Group on the next trading day is expected to be 54.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.51. Alaska Air after-hype prediction price | USD 50.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alaska Air to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alaska contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alaska Air Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0313% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Alaska Air trading at USD 50.87, that is roughly USD 0.0159 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alaska Air's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alaska Air Group options at the current volatility level of 0.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Alaska Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alaska Air's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Alaska Air's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Alaska Air stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alaska Air's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alaska Air's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alaska Air is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alaska. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Alaska Air Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alaska price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alaska using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alaska charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alaska Air Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Alaska Air's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 778 M | Current Value 806 M | Quarterly Volatility 412.2 M |
Alaska Air Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alaska Air Group on the next trading day is expected to be 54.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.19, mean absolute percentage error of 2.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alaska Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alaska Air's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alaska Air Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alaska Air | Alaska Air Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alaska Air Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alaska Air's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alaska Air's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.92 and 57.20, respectively. We have considered Alaska Air's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alaska Air stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alaska Air stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.829 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1887 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0261 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 72.5136 |
Predictive Modules for Alaska Air
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alaska Air Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alaska Air After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alaska Air at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alaska Air or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alaska Air, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alaska Air Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alaska Air's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alaska Air's historical news coverage. Alaska Air's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 48.20 and 53.54, respectively. We have considered Alaska Air's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alaska Air is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alaska Air Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alaska Air Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alaska Air is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alaska Air backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alaska Air, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 2.64 | 0.20 | 0.55 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
50.87 | 50.87 | 0.00 |
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Alaska Air Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Alaska Air Group is traded for 50.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.55. Alaska is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.31%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alaska Air is about 149.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 51.42. About 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.43. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alaska Air Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.3. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of February 2020. The firm had 2:1 split on the 10th of July 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alaska Air to cross-verify your projections.Alaska Air Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alaska Air's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alaska Air's future price movements. Getting to know how Alaska Air's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alaska Air may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OMAB | Grupo Aeroportuario del | (0.32) | 16 per month | 1.09 | 0.12 | 4.87 | (1.92) | 10.36 | |
| CPA | Copa Holdings SA | (0.32) | 19 per month | 2.04 | 0.02 | 3.06 | (1.93) | 13.61 | |
| BCO | Brinks Company | (1.37) | 11 per month | 1.35 | 0.05 | 3.11 | (2.28) | 10.50 | |
| BZ | Kanzhun Ltd ADR | (0.47) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.74 | (2.95) | 11.69 | |
| SKYW | SkyWest | (0.05) | 16 per month | 2.01 | (0.02) | 3.94 | (2.46) | 11.11 | |
| POWL | Powell Industries | 22.59 | 10 per month | 4.13 | 0.07 | 6.27 | (7.08) | 18.07 | |
| ECG | Everus Construction Group | (1.16) | 10 per month | 3.72 | (0) | 5.40 | (5.73) | 20.64 | |
| MSM | MSC Industrial Direct | (0.30) | 8 per month | 1.74 | (0.03) | 3.10 | (3.15) | 10.04 | |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | (0.59) | 12 per month | 0.85 | 0.11 | 2.34 | (1.74) | 5.83 | |
| ACA | Arcosa Inc | (0.32) | 13 per month | 1.04 | 0.12 | 3.06 | (2.03) | 13.18 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alaska Air
For every potential investor in Alaska, whether a beginner or expert, Alaska Air's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alaska Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alaska. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alaska Air's price trends.Alaska Air Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alaska Air stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alaska Air could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alaska Air by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alaska Air Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alaska Air stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alaska Air shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alaska Air stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alaska Air Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alaska Air Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alaska Air's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alaska Air's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alaska stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.76 | |||
| Variance | 7.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.31 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alaska Air
The number of cover stories for Alaska Air depends on current market conditions and Alaska Air's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alaska Air is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alaska Air's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alaska Air to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Passenger Airlines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alaska Air. If investors know Alaska will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alaska Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.68) | Earnings Share 0.83 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.028 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Alaska Air Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alaska that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alaska Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alaska Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alaska Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alaska Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alaska Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alaska Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alaska Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.