First Commerce Bank Stock Price Patterns

CMRB Stock  USD 6.70  0.19  2.92%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of First Commerce's share price is above 70 at the present time suggesting that the pink sheet is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling First, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 79

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of First Commerce's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with First Commerce Bank, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using First Commerce hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Commerce Bank from the perspective of First Commerce response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First Commerce to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

First Commerce after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 6.7  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out First Commerce Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.805.276.74
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
5.617.098.56
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.966.296.63
Details

First Commerce After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of First Commerce at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Commerce or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of First Commerce, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

First Commerce Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting First Commerce's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Commerce's historical news coverage. First Commerce's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.23 and 8.17, respectively. We have considered First Commerce's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
6.70
6.70
After-hype Price
8.17
Upside
First Commerce is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Commerce Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.

First Commerce Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Commerce is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Commerce backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Commerce, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.48 
1.47
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
6.70
6.70
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

First Commerce Hype Timeline

First Commerce Bank is currently traded for 6.70. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. First is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.48%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Commerce is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.70. The company last dividend was issued on the 3rd of February 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out First Commerce Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

First Commerce Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to First Commerce's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Commerce's future price movements. Getting to know how First Commerce's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Commerce may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
UBOHUnited Bancshares 0.00 0 per month 1.20  0.08  3.47 (2.84) 15.52 
FKYSFirst Keystone Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.64  0.14  2.72 (1.57) 7.39 
PSBQPSB Holdings 0.00 0 per month 0.71  0.12  1.87 (1.52) 4.74 
CWBKCommerceWest Bank 0.00 0 per month 0.51  0.03  1.38 (1.65) 5.49 
AMBKAmerican Bank 0.00 0 per month 2.65  0.05  4.22 (4.41) 20.22 
CHBHCroghan Bancshares 0.00 0 per month 1.04  0.17  2.78 (1.79) 7.47 
SLBKSkyline Bankshares 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.18  1.58 (0.97) 5.36 
DIMCDimeco Inc 0.00 0 per month 0.92  0.10  1.48 (1.74) 7.03 
FFDFFFD Financial Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.65 (0.05) 0.93 (1.56) 5.45 
OXBCOxford Bank 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.14  1.22 (0.58) 3.68 

First Commerce Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About First Commerce Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of First Commerce stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Commerce Bank, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Commerce based on analysis of First Commerce hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First Commerce's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First Commerce's related companies.

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When running First Commerce's price analysis, check to measure First Commerce's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Commerce is operating at the current time. Most of First Commerce's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Commerce's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Commerce's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Commerce to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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