Horace Mann Educators Stock Price Prediction
| HMN Stock | USD 41.27 0.16 0.39% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
71
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.964 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.04 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.5675 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.6825 | Wall Street Target Price 42.6667 |
Using Horace Mann hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Horace Mann Educators from the perspective of Horace Mann response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Horace Mann Educators Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Horace Mann's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Horace. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Horace can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Horace Mann Educators. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Horace Mann's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Horace Mann.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Horace Mann to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Horace because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Horace Mann after-hype prediction price | USD 41.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Horace |
Horace Mann After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Horace Mann at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Horace Mann or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Horace Mann, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Horace Mann Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Horace Mann's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Horace Mann's historical news coverage. Horace Mann's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 39.33 and 43.09, respectively. We have considered Horace Mann's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Horace Mann is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Horace Mann Educators is based on 3 months time horizon.
Horace Mann Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Horace Mann is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Horace Mann backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Horace Mann, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 1.88 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
41.27 | 41.21 | 0.53 |
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Horace Mann Hype Timeline
On the 25th of November Horace Mann Educators is traded for 41.27. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Horace is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 41.21. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.53%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Horace Mann is about 743.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.19. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.31. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Horace Mann Educators has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.52. The entity last dividend was issued on the 16th of September 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 16th of December 1997. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Horace Mann Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Horace Mann Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Horace Mann's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Horace Mann's future price movements. Getting to know how Horace Mann's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Horace Mann may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KMPR | Kemper | 0.37 | 10 per month | 1.07 | 0.08 | 2.28 | (1.57) | 5.66 | |
| RLI | RLI Corp | 0.16 | 11 per month | 1.15 | 0.11 | 1.76 | (1.82) | 7.01 | |
| GBLI | Global Indemnity PLC | (0.50) | 6 per month | 0.98 | 0.03 | 2.91 | (1.97) | 7.14 | |
| ARGO-PA | Argo Group International | 0.28 | 20 per month | 0.27 | (0.30) | 0.60 | (0.48) | 1.78 | |
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group | (2.56) | 10 per month | 1.22 | 0.02 | 2.13 | (1.82) | 8.59 | |
| ARGO | Argo Group International | 0.04 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (1.05) | 0.14 | (0.17) | 0.65 | |
| NODK | NI Holdings | (0.20) | 5 per month | 1.23 | 0.02 | 2.13 | (2.04) | 5.60 | |
| DGICA | Donegal Group A | 0.01 | 10 per month | 1.63 | 0.02 | 2.51 | (1.90) | 12.60 | |
| SIGIP | Selective Insurance Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.74 | (0.16) | 1.17 | (1.29) | 3.35 | |
| PRA | ProAssurance | (0.13) | 8 per month | 1.74 | 0.09 | 3.11 | (3.27) | 11.78 |
Horace Mann Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Horace price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Horace using various technical indicators. When you analyze Horace charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Horace Mann Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Horace Mann stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Horace Mann Educators, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Horace Mann based on analysis of Horace Mann hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Horace Mann's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Horace Mann's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0338 | 0.0399 | 0.0419 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.13 | 0.91 | 0.86 |
Story Coverage note for Horace Mann
The number of cover stories for Horace Mann depends on current market conditions and Horace Mann's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Horace Mann is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Horace Mann's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Horace Mann Short Properties
Horace Mann's future price predictability will typically decrease when Horace Mann's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Horace Mann Educators often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Horace Mann's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Horace Mann's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 29 M |
Check out Horace Mann Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Is Multi-line Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Horace Mann. If investors know Horace will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Horace Mann listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.964 | Dividend Share 1.35 | Earnings Share 2.52 | Revenue Per Share 38.477 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.088 |
The market value of Horace Mann Educators is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Horace that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Horace Mann's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Horace Mann's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Horace Mann's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Horace Mann's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Horace Mann's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Horace Mann is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Horace Mann's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.